Mets vs Blue Jays Prediction 7/1/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Blue Jays Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, July 1^st in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays have a 40‑46 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL East. They have a 23‑25 home record and are coming off a 0‑3 home defeat against the Mets. They will face the Mariners and the Giants next.

The Blue Jays have a .247 batting average this season, .309 OBP and .387 Slugging percentage. Toronto’s pitching staff has a 4.10 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Ernie Clement is the team’s best hitter with a .297 batting average. Kazuma Okamoto leads the team in RBI with 53, adding a team‑high 19 home runs.

Braydon Fisher (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays, and he has a 3‑3 record, 3.48 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 36‑50 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 17‑26 road record and are coming off a 3‑0 road win against the Blue Jays. They will face the Braves and the Royals next.

The Mets have a .230 batting average this season, .298 OBP and .375 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.06 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Juan Soto is the team’s best hitter with a .298 batting average, also adding a team‑high 17 home runs. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 46.

Freddy Peralta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 5‑6 record, 4.53 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.

New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends: July 1, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Braydon Fisher      Record this season: 3-3      ERA: 3.48
• Home Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Mets: –

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games as road favorites against AL East opponents following a road win.
• The Blue Jays have won five of their last six games as home underdogs against NL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last seven day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Mets have lost the first inning in four of their last five road games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against American League opponents.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last nine games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta      Record this season: 5-6      ERA: 4.53
• Road Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-1

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Blue Jays have lost 10 of their last 11 home games after playing the previous day.
• The road team has won seven of the Blue Jays’ last eight games.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 home games after playing the previous day.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the Blue Jays’ last eight games.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five day games.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in four of their last five day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Mets’ last eight road games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the last five games between the Mets and Blue Jays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of the Blue Jays’ last nine games.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Mets’ last four games as favorites.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Yohendrick Pinango has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Braydon Fisher has recorded two strikeouts in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Luis Urias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Ernie Clement ranks 7th in the league in Hits (94) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Alvarez has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Mets as favorites against the Blue Jays.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded five or more strikeouts in 17 of his last 18 appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 appearances in day games against AL East teams that held a losing record.
• Juan Soto ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.563) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for triples this season (5).
• The Blue Jays rank 29th in the league for walks this season (237).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (104).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.298).

Mets vs Blue Jays Prediction

The Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Blue Jays and have won two of their last three visits in Toronto.

In this Mets vs Blue Jays Prediction, the Mets are coming as -115 road favorites. I like the Mets in this one and this is purely a fade to a struggling Blue Jays team that has won only once in its last eight games. Peralta is coming off a shutout start and the Jays are going for a bullpen game, while their offense has been struggling, with just 4 runs scored in their last three games. The Mets have the 4^th-best bullpen in baseball so I expect them to win this one on the road.