In this article we will formulate a Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 11th at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.
Brewers Still Lead the NL Central
The Milwaukee Brewers are 54-39 this season and they have lost four of their last six games. Milwaukee was blown out in game one of this series, but they won game two by a score of 9-0 on Wednesday. Prior to this series, the Brewers lost two out of three against the Dodgers, split four games with the Rockies, and won two out of three against the Cubs. Milwaukee is 5-6 in their last 11 games and they are leading the Cardinals in the NL Central.
The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 450 runs with a .257 batting average and a .334 on base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .240 with 14 home runs and 62 RBI’s for the Brewers this season. Milwaukee has scored nine runs in two of their last three games.
Pirates Battling for Third in the NL Central
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 44-48 this year and they have lost three of their last five games. Pittsburgh won game one by a score of 12-2 on Tuesday, but they were shutout in game two on Wednesday. Prior to this series, the Pirates split four games with the Mets, lost two out of three against the Cardinals, and lost two out of three against the Braves. Pittsburgh is 5-7 in their last 12 games and they are third in the NL Central by a half game.
The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .248 opponent batting average. The Pirates offense has scored 382 runs with a .230 batting average and a .298 on base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .280 with 17 home runs and 56 RBI’s for the Pirates this season. Pittsburgh has scored three runs or fewer in four of their last seven games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Aaron Civale, who is 2-6 with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 92.0 innings pitched this year. Civale allowed four earned runs and five hits over five innings against the Dodgers in his first start for the Brewers. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Paul Skenes, who is 5-0 with a 2.12 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over 59.1 innings pitched this season. Skenes has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts and has struck out at least seven in five straight.
Why the Brewers will beat the Pirates
- The Brewers have won five of their last six games as home underdogs.
- The Pirates have lost eight of their last 10 games as favorites against the Brewers following a road loss.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in 19 of their last 21 games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as road favorites against NL Central opponents following a loss.
- The Brewers have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games as underdogs against National League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Pirates’ last six day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Brewers’ last five games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last nine day games at American Family Field.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last three day games against NL Central opponents.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
- Christian Yelich has hit a home run in each of the Brewers’ last three day games.
- Willy Adames has recorded a Double in each of the Brewers’ last three games against NL opponents.
- Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances with his team as a home underdog against NL Central opponents.
- Christian Yelich has scored at least one run in each of his last 10 Thursday day appearances at American Family Field.
- William Contreras has recorded at least one Single in each of his eight previous appearances with the Brewers as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- William Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers’ last 11 games as home underdogs against NL opponents.
- Brice Turang has recorded at least one total base in 17 of his last 18 appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Andrew McCutchen has hit a home run in four of his last six appearances with the Pirates as road favorites.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded an RBI in four of the Pirates’ last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- Andrew McCutchen has scored at least one run in nine of his last 10 appearances with the Pirates as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances with the Pirates as road favorites against the Brewers.
- Rowdy Tellez has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances with the Pirates as favorites against NL opponents.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 13 road games against NL Central opponents.
- Joey Bart has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against NL Central opponents.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
The Brewers were able to bounce back from the game one blowout loss with a blowout win of their own in game two, but now they will have to face Paul Skenes. Skenes has been absolutely electric in his short MLB career and he is striking out batters at a great rate. The Brewers are 28-14 at home, while the Pirates are 22-24 on the road. Milwaukee is going with Aaron Civale, who has really struggled this season and has an ERA over five. The Pirates definitely have the pitching advantage with Skenes, but getting Milwaukee at plus money at home against an inconsistent Pittsburgh offense is too much to pass up. My Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction is for the Brewers to win.