In this article we will formulate a Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, May 9th at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in this series.
Brewers are Struggling
The Milwaukee Brewers are 21-15 this year and they have lost four of their last five games. Milwaukee is coming off of a series loss against the Royals, where they lost two out of three games and allowed 14 runs in the three games. Prior to that series, the Brewers lost two out of three against the Cubs, won two out of three against the Rays, and lost two out of three against the Yankees. Milwaukee has only won one of their last five series, but they are tied for first in the NL Central with the Cubs.
The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 4.09 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 177 runs with a .253 batting average and a .332 on base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .257 with seven home runs and 25 RBI’s for the Brewers this season. Milwaukee is ninth in runs scored this season and they have scored at least four runs in five of their last eight games.
Cardinals are Last in the NL Central
The St. Louis Cardinals are 15-21 this season and they have lost six of their last seven games. St. Louis is coming off of a series loss against the Mets, where they lost games one and two by scores of 7-5 and 4-3, before game three was postponed. Prior to that series, the Cardinals lost two out of three against the White Sox, lost two out of three against the Tigers, and won two out of three against the Mets. St. Louis has really struggled to play consistent baseball so far this season and they are last in the NL Central behind the Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, and Reds.
The St. Louis pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .255 opponent batting average. The Cardinals offense has scored 126 runs with a .218 batting average and a .296 on base percentage. Nolan Arenado is batting .287 with two home runs and 20 RBI’s for the Cardinals this season. Arenado and Goldschmidt need to produce more, or this St. Louis offense isn’t going to get better. The Cardinals are ranked 29th in runs scored this season.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Sonny Gray, who is 4-1 with a 0.89 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over 30.1 innings pitched this year. Gray has allowed three earned runs over his last five starts (30.1 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Tobias Myers, who is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 13.0 inning pitched this year. Myers has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Cubs and Yankees.
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Tobias Myers Record this season: 0-2 ERA: 6.23
- The Brewers have won 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
- The Cardinals have lost each of their last four games as favorites.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs following a road loss.
- The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Thursday games as road favorites.
- The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as favorites.
- The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents.
Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray Record this season: 4-1 ERA: 0.89
- The road team has won each of the Cardinals’ last four games.
- The Brewers have lost four of their last five games.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against National League opponents.
- The Cardinals have covered the run line each of their last four road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the last eight games between the Cardinals and Brewers at American Family Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Cardinals’ last five road games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last six games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last six night games at American Family Field.
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
St. Louis comes into this game really struggling so far this season, but their lone bright spot has been Sonny Gray, and he will be on the mound here. Gray has been fantastic this season and is one of the best pitchers in the MLB this year. Milwaukee is tied for first in the NL Central, but they have not played their best in their last five games. The Brewers are going with Tobias Myers, who I don’t trust, even against this Cardinals offense. My Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction is for the Cardinals to get the win.