In this article we will formulate a NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 11th at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game two in this series.
Mets Fading in the NL East
The New York Mets are 18-19 this season and they have lost four of their last six games. New York dropped game one in the series by a score of 4-2. Prior to this series, the Mets won two games in a mini series against the Cardinals, were swept by the Rays, and split a four game series with the Cubs. New York has only won back to back games once over their last 17 games and they are fourth in the NL East behind the Phillies, Braves, and Nationals.
The New York pitching staff has a 3.73 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a .223 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 163 runs with a .238 batting average and a .312 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .220 with nine home runs and 20 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York is 12th in team ERA so far this season and they have allowed three runs or fewer in six of their last 11 games.
Atlanta Looking for Four Straight
The Atlanta Braves are 23-12 this year and they have won three games in a row. Prior to winning the first game in this series by a score of 4-2, Atlanta won both games against Boston, lost three games to the Dodgers, and lost two out of three against Seattle. Atlanta went through two tough series against the Mariners and Dodgers, but they have been very good this season and they are second in the NL East, just two games behind the Phillies.
The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.52 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .234 opponent batting average. The Braves offense has scored 176 runs with a .256 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. Marcell Ozuna is batting .313 with 12 home runs and 38 RBI’s for the Braves this season. Atlanta is just 13th in runs scored this year, but they have scored 13 runs in their last three games. The Braves are ninth in team ERA and they have allowed two runs or fewer in four of their last seven games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for New York is Christian Scott, who is 0-0 with a 1.35 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over 6.2 innings pitched this year. Scott allowed one earned run, five hits, and one walk over 6.2 innings against the Rays in his first start. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Max Fried, who is 2-1 with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 38.1 innings pitched this season. Fried has allowed 0 earned runs in two of his last three starts, but did allow four earned runs to the Dodgers in his last start.
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Mets have won four of their last five games as home underdogs following a loss.
- The Braves have lost three of their last four games as road favorites against NL East opponents following a road win.
- The Mets have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as home underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven day games against the Mets following a win.
- The Mets have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs.
- The Braves have lost the first inning in each of their last three Saturday games as road favorites against National League opponents.
Why the Atlanta Braves will win
- The Braves have won each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Mets have lost each of their last 10 Saturday games as home underdogs.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games following a home loss.
- The road team has covered the run line in each of the Mets’ last four games.
- The Braves have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games against NL East opponents.
- The Braves have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games.
NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
New York comes into this matchup struggling over the last few weeks, but their season numbers for pitching and hitting have not been that bad. The Mets are 9-11 at home this year, while Atlanta is 10-8 on the road. The Braves were dominated in LA against the Dodgers, but they have bounced back with three straight wins. Atlanta is starting Max Fried, who has been very solid for them in recent outings. The Mets are going with Christian Scott, who is only making his second start of the year. Scott looked very solid in his first start against Tampa Bay and while the Mets have not been very good recently, I think they can keep this game close. My NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves prediction is for the Mets to cover the +1.5.