Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction 5-11-24 Picks
St. Louis Cardinals (15-23) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (23-15)
May 11, 2024 7:15 pm EDT
The Line: Milwaukee Brewers -170 / St. Louis Cardinals +145; Over/Under: +7.5
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In this article we will formulate a Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 11th at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.
Brewers are Leading the NL Central
The Milwaukee Brewers are 23-15 this year and they have won three of their last four games. Milwaukee has won the first two games in this series by scores of 7-1 and 11-2. Prior to this series, the Brewers lost two out of three against Kansas City, lost two out of three against the Cubs, and won two out of three against Tampa Bay. Milwaukee has been a little inconsistent recently, going just 6-7 in their last 13 games, but they are leading the NL Central by a half game over the Cubs.
The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 195 runs with a .256 batting average and a .334 on base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .265 with seven home runs and 27 RBI’s for the Brewers this season. Milwaukee is 16th in team ERA and 5th in runs scored, as they have scored at least four runs in four straight games.
Cardinals Need Major Help
The St. Louis Cardinals are 15-23 this season and they have lost six games in a row. St. Louis has lost the first two games in this series and they have been out scored 18-3. Prior to this series, the Cardinals were swept by the Mets in two games, lost two out of three to the White Sox, and lost two out of three in Detroit. St. Louis has not won back to back games in their last 11 games and they are last in the NL Central behind the Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, and Reds.
The St. Louis pitching staff has a 4.25 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .258 opponent batting average. The Cardinals offense has scored 129 runs with a .215 batting average and a .294 on base percentage. Nolan Arenado is batting .280 with two home runs and 20 RBI’s for the Cardinals this season. St. Louis is 29th in runs scored so far this season and they have scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last eleven games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Freddy Peralta, who is 3-1 with a 3.49 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 38.2 innings pitched this season. Peralta has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but did allow five earned runs on the road against Pittsburgh three starts ago. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Kyle Gibson, who is 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 44.0 innings pitched this year. Gibson has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, going at least six innings in all of them.
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The Brewers have won each of their last nine games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cardinals have lost each of their last seven games after playing the previous day.
- The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games after playing the previous day.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five road games.
Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win
- The Cardinals have won each of their last seven Saturday night road games against NL Central opponents.
- The Brewers have lost 17 of their last 21 night games against the Cardinals at American Family Field following a home win.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games following a home win.
- The Cardinals have covered the run line in six of their last seven night games against the Brewers following a road loss.
- The Brewers have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five Saturday games.
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
St. Louis comes into this matchup after getting blown out in the first two games of the series, but they will try to find a victory here. Milwaukee has dominated the first two games in this series, but they haven’t been great over the last two weeks, which tells me they are due for some regression in this series. St. Louis is turning to Kyle Gibson, who has actually been pretty good for the Cards. I think Gibson has another strong performance and my Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction is for the Cardinals to get the win.