In this article we will formulate a NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 12th at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.
Mets are Trying to Avoid the Sweep
The New York Mets are 18-20 this year and they have lost five of their last seven games. New York has lost the first two games in this series and they were nearly no hit on Saturday afternoon. Prior to this series, the Mets won two games against the Cardinals, were swept by the Rays, and split a four game series with the Cubs. New York has won one of their last six series and they are currently fourth in the NL East behind the Phillies, Braves, and Nationals.
The New York pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .223 opponent batting average. The Mets are scoring 164 runs with a .234 batting average and a .310 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .215 with nine home runs and 20 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York is 18th in runs scored this year and they have scored two runs or fewer in three of their last six games.
Braves Looking for Five Straight
The Atlanta Braves are 24-12 this season and they have won four games in a row. Atlanta has won the first two games in this series by scores of 4-2 and 4-1. Prior to this series, the Braves swept a mini series with the Red Sox, were swept by the Dodgers in three games, and lost two out of three against the Mariners. Atlanta went through that tough stretch in Seattle and LA, but they are still second in the NL East, right behind the Phillies.
The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.45 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average. The Braves offense has scored 180 runs with a .255 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. Marcell Ozuna is batting .319 with 12 home runs and 38 RBI’s for the Braves this season. Atlanta is just 13th in runs scored this season, but they have scored at least four runs in all four games during this winning streak.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for New York is Luis Severino, who is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 40.0 innings pitched this year. Severino has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last five starts, but did allow four earned runs in his last start against Tampa Bay. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Bryce Elder, who is 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP over 15.1 innings pitched this year. Elder pitched well in his first two starts, but did allow seven earned runs and seven hits over 3.1 innings against the Dodgers last time out.
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Mets have won three of their last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Braves have lost three of their last five games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
- The Mets have covered the run line in nine of their last 11 night games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
Why the Atlanta Braves will win
- The Braves have won each of their last eight games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Mets have lost four of their last five games against the Braves following a home loss.
- The road team has covered the run line in seven of the last eight games between the Braves and Mets.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last three games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Braves have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Braves have led after 3 innings in each of their last five night games against the Mets.
NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
New York is looking to avoid getting swept in this matchup, but they need to find more offense than they have shown in games one and two. The Mets have been very inconsistent with their hitting and they are just 9-12 at home. Atlanta is 11-8 on the road and they are 12 games above .500 on the season. The Braves are going with Bryce Elder, who has some rough numbers, but he pitched very well in his first two starts. New York is going with Severino, who has also been solid to start this season. We have seen two lower scoring games in this series, but I think the Mets will finally find some offense in this game, while Atlanta has scored at least four runs in four straight. My NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves prediction is for this game to go over the total.