The Kansas City Royals and the Baltimore Orioles meet Friday in MLB action from Oriole Park. This will be the first installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s an Orioles vs Royals Prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Orioles vs Royals pick.
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview
The Royals opened their campaign by losing the first two sets against the Cleveland Guardians and the Milwaukee Brewers, then took a series victory over the Baltimore Orioles. Kansas City then got a win in another series versus the Minnesota Twins, ahead of a series loss in the rematch against Cleveland. KC bagged a sweep over the New York Yankees, then lost in three of four versus the Detroit Tigers. The Royals swept the Rockies, then took wins in two of three versus the Astros last weekend. In their opener versus the Rays, the Royals powered out a 3-1 victory. In Wednesday’s game two, KC bagged another victory, out-hitting the Rays 11-4. Starter Noah Cameron was quite sharp on 6.1 innings, no earned runs, one hit, and five walks.
In Thursday’s finale, the Royals posted 15 team hits on the way to an 8-2 victory. Starting pitcher Seth Lugo finished with 6.0 frames, two earned, five hits, and no walks.
As a starter for Friday, the Royals will send out Michael Wacha. This year, Wacha is 1-3 with a 3.38 ERA in six starts and 32.0 innings total. Wacha is 102-65 with a 3.88 ERA in 284 career games (263 starts).
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
Over on the Orioles’ side, they tied their first series of the year versus the Toronto Blue Jays, then lost a set against the Boston Red Sox. Losses in two more series versus the Royals and Diamondbacks came next, then a two-game tie in the rematch with the Jays. Baltimore finally got a series win over the Guardians next, then lost two of three versus the Nationals, and got swept by Detroit. After a Monday win over the Yankees, in game two, the O’s were demolished 15-3, giving up a whopping 19 team hits and committing three errors along the way. Starter Kyle Gibson had a rough day on 3.2 innings, nine earned, 11 hits, two walks, and two Ks.
In their Wednesday finale, Baltimore eked out another victory, 5-4, to take the series against their rivals. The O’s out-hit New York 10-7 along the way, scoring four runs in the second inning alone. Ryan Mountcastle came away with a homer and two RBI, while starter Cade Povich was sketchy on 4.2 innings and three earned runs on three hits and three walks.
In the starter slot for the Friday matchup, the Orioles are going with Dean Kremer. This year, over six starts, Kremer is 2-4 with a 7.04 ERA across 30.2 total innings. Kremer is 32-34 with a 4.44 ERA in 101 career games (100 starts).
Why the Baltimore Orioles will win
- The Royals have lost each of their last nine night games against the Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards following a road win.
- The home team has won five of the Orioles’ last six games.
- The Royals have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards following a road win.
- The Orioles have covered the run line in nine of their last 11 games as home favorites against the Royals following a home win.
- The Orioles have led after 5 innings in four of their last five home games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Orioles have led after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Kansas City Royals will win
- The Royals have won each of their last four games as road underdogs.
- The Orioles have lost six of their last seven games as favorites following a win.
- The Royals have covered the run line in each of their last eight Friday games against AL East opponents.
- The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games following a win.
- The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 games.
- The Royals have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games.
- The Royals have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Royals’ last eight night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Orioles’ last four games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Royals’ last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Orioles’ last six games against AL Central opponents.
Orioles vs Royals Prediction
I’ll lean toward the Royals here. Much of that is due to Kremer’s last couple of starts, as he’s been struggling lately. The good news is that Kremer posted a win over Cleveland on April 16 with one earned run on four hits and a walk. In his two starts since then, however, Kremer has posted a combined 11.0 innings with 10 earned runs on 15 hits and four walks, losing both games. He’s certainly a better pitcher than that, but if the trend holds, it’s bad news for the Orioles’ chances at winning.
Kansas City had a great offensive day in their win over the Rays on Thursday, bagging three runs in two different innings. Bobby Witt had a homer with three RBI, and Vinnie Pasquantino added two hits, a run, and two RBI of his own. The bullpen was also great on 3.0 combined innings, no earned runs, three hits, no walks, and two Ks total. I like KC to keep it going on Friday.