In this article we will formulate a Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, July 2nd at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Pirates are Battling in the NL Central
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 40-43 this year and they have won three of their last five games. Pittsburgh is coming off of a series loss against Atlanta, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Pirates won two out of three against the Reds, lost two out of three against the Rays, and won two out of three against the Reds. Pittsburgh is 3-4 in their last seven games and they are third in the NL Central.
The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.98 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .246 opponent batting average. The Pirates offense has scored 333 runs with a .227 batting average and a .296 on base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .275 with 13 home runs and 46 RBI’s for the Pirates this season. Pittsburgh has scored at least four runs in four of their last six games.
Cardinals Trying to Break Trend
The St. Louis Cardinals are 43-40 this season and they have alternated wins and losses over their last seven games. St. Louis is coming off of a series split with Cincinnati, where they won two games and lost two games. If the trend were to continue, St. Louis would be due for a loss here. Prior to that series, the Cardinals won two out of three against the Braves, swept the Giants, and lost two out of three against the Marlins. St. Louis is 7-3 in their last 10 games and they are second in the NL Central.
The St. Louis pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Cardinals offense has scored 328 runs with a .239 batting average and a .306 on base percentage. Nolan Gorman is batting .187 with 16 home runs and 37 RBI’s for the Cardinals this season. St. Louis has scored two runs or fewer in three of their last six games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who is 9-4 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 98.1 innings pitched this year. Keller has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last five outings. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Kyle Gibson, who is 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 87.2 innings pitched this season. Gibson has allowed three earned runs or more in three of his last four starts.
Why the Pirates will beat the Cardinals
- The Cardinals have lost eight of their last nine games against the Pirates following a win.
- The Pirates have won each of their last five home games against NL Central opponents following a road win.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games at PNC Park.
Why the Cardinals will beat the Pirates
- The Cardinals have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
- The Pirates have lost three of their last four games as favorites following a win.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as home favorites following a road win.
- The Cardinals have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against the Pirates following a win.
- The Cardinals have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against the Pirates at PNC Park.
- The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents.
- The Cardinals have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cardinals’ last nine games as underdogs against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Pirates’ last nine games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last seven games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six games between the Cardinals and Pirates.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last four home games.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Pirates’ last eight games as home favorites.
- Mitch Keller has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances in night games.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last five home appearances against the Cardinals.
- Mitch Keller has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances with the Pirates as home favorites against NL opponents.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Single in each of the Pirates’ last six home games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Bryan Reynolds has scored a run in each of the Pirates’ last eight games as home favorites.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 17 home games.
- Connor Joe has recorded at least one Double in four of the Pirates’ last five home games against the Cardinals.
St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts
- Willson Contreras has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances against NL Central opponents.
- Willson Contreras has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Brendan Donovan has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Cardinals’ last eight night games.
- Nolan Arenado has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight road appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Kyle Gibson has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five road appearances.
- Brendan Donovan has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cardinals’ last 13 night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Tommy Edman has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances in night games.
- Tommy Edman has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 17 Tuesday night appearances against NL teams that held a losing record.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
St. Louis comes into this game in second place in the NL Central standings and they have played very well over the last month. The Cardinals are just 19-22 on the road, while the Pirates are 19-20 at home. St. Louis is starting Kyle Gibson, who has just been ok for them recently. Pittsburgh is going with Keller, who has had a solid season, but did allow four earned runs in St. Louis three starts ago. Both of these starting pitchers have decent numbers on the season, but I think the offenses will get to them here. My Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction is for this game to go over the total.