The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Tampa Bay Rays meet on Monday in MLB action from George M. Steinbrenner Field. This will be the first installment in a three-game early-week series. Here’s a Rays vs Pirates prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Rays vs Pirates pick.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pirates are coming off a four-game weekend series versus the Miami Marlins. Pittsburgh played it close in that one over the first three games, with each being decided by a single run. The Pirates took a tough 5-4 loss in the Thursday opener, then bounced back with a 4-3 win in the Friday matchup to even things up. Pittsburgh would fall again Saturday by another 5-4 score. In that one, the Pirates gave up 13 hits (posting nine themselves) in a 12-inning marathon defeat. Leading the charge on offense was Joey Bart (RBI) with a 3-for-6 day. Bryan Reynolds (run; walk) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (two walks) each added a pair of hits.
In the Sunday finale, the Pirates had a 2-1 lead heading into the bottom of the seventh inning but couldn’t hang on in an eventual loss 3-2. Pittsburgh posted five team hits along the way, including a solo homer from Andrew McCutchen. Starting pitcher Andrew Heaney logged 5.0 innings with one earned on four hits and one walk.
For the starter gig in the Monday series opener, Pittsburgh will go with Carmen Mlodzinski. Last year, Mlodzinski went 5-5 with a 3.38 ERA in 40 games (four starts), striking out 46 batters in 50.2 innings of work. In his career during the regular season, Mlodzinski is 8-8 with a 2.91 ERA in 75 games (five starts).
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
Over on the Rays’ side, they’re fresh off a weekend series versus the Colorado Rockies. Tampa Bay managed to eke out a 3-2 victory in the Friday matchup, thanks in part to a solo home run courtesy of Kameron Misner. Game two on Saturday didn’t go so well, however, as the Rays ended up taking a 2-1 loss despite out-hitting Colorado 12-6. Five different players had multiple hits in that one, including Junior Caminero with a 3-for-5 effort.
On Sunday in the rubber match, Tampa Bay gave away an early 2-0 lead but eventually scored four runs in the bottom of the sixth on the way to a big win 6-4. Brandon Lowe had a homer with two RBI, while Johnny DeLuca had three of the team’s nine hits. Taj Bradley was the starter and logged 6.0 frames with two earned on five hits.
It’ll be Drew Rasmussen in the starting role for the Rays on Monday. Last season, Rasmussen went 0-2 with a 2.83 ERA and 35 strikeouts across 28.2 innings in 16 games (four starts). Over his MLB regular-season career, Rasmussen is 20-12 with a 2.95 ERA in 99 games (50 starts).
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
- The Rays have won each of their last seven home games against the Pirates.
- The Pirates have lost 12 of their last 13 night games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 night games against AL East opponents.
- The Rays have covered the run line in six of their last seven games against the Pirates.
- The Rays have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home night games.
- The Rays have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against the Pirates.
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Rays have lost each of their last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a home win.
- The Pirates have won each of their last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a loss.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites following a home win.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in 14 of their last 16 road games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
- The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games against NL Central opponents.
- The Rays have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against NL Central opponents.
- The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Rays’ last seven home games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Pirates’ last six games as underdogs against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Rays’ last 12 home games.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Pirates’ last 10 night games.
Rays vs Pirates Prediction
I’m going to stay with Tampa Bay. The Rays will be in good shape if they can get a solid start out of Rasmussen here, but they’ve got to push up the offense (and plate some runs as a result). Tampa Bay got a 2.53 ERA without a decision in three Spring Training starts from Rasmussen this season. He’s only played in 24 games over the last two years, so it’d be nice if the Rays could get some significant time out of Rasmussen in 2025. As for Mlodzinski, he posted a 3.72 ERA without a decision over four games (two starts) this spring.
On Sunday, Tampa Bay had a pretty well-rounded offensive outing, with seven different players contributing to the team’s nine hits. Kevin Kelly had some struggles in his relief inning (two earned), but everything worked out well. The Rays need to keep the bats going on Monday, but they should be in a promising spot.