In this article, we will formulate a San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, October 1st at Petco Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in this NL Wild Card series.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The San Diego Padres were 93-69 during the regular season and they finished second in the NL West and in the first NL Wild Card spot. San Diego played very well over the last month and they have won 11 of their last 15 games. San Diego is coming off of a series win against Arizona, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Padres lost two out of three against the Dodgers, swept the White Sox, and won two out of three against the Astros.
The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average. The Padres’ offense has scored 760 runs with a .263 batting average and a .324 on-base percentage. Manny Machado is batting .275 with 29 home runs and 105 RBIs for the Padres this season.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
The Atlanta Braves were 89-73 in the regular season and they needed to win game 162 on Monday afternoon to clinch the last wild card spot in the NL. Atlanta has had one of the best pitching staffs in baseball this year, but the offense has been very average. Atlanta is coming off of a doubleheader split on Monday afternoon with the Mets, which resulted in both teams getting into the postseason. Prior to that, the Braves won two out of three against the Royals, won one game against the Mets, and won two out of three against the Marlins.
The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.49 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average. The Braves’ offense has scored 704 runs with a .243 batting average and a .309 on-base percentage. Marcell Ozuna is batting .302 with 39 home runs and 104 RBIs for the Braves this season.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Michael King, who is 13-9 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 173.2 innings pitched this year. King has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is TBD. Chris Sale is expected to miss the series with an injury and they had to use two starting pitchers on Monday afternoon.
Why the Padres will beat the Braves
- The Padres have won nine of their last 10 night games following a road loss.
- The Braves have lost each of their last four games against the Padres following a home win.
- The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last nine Tuesday games against National League opponents.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six playoff games.
- The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six playoff games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Padres’ last eight games as favorites against the Braves have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Nine of the Braves’ last 10 games as underdogs against the Padres have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last six games as favorites.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last five games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
- Manny Machado has hit at least one home run in each of the Padres’ last two home games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one total base in each of the Padres’ last 11 games as favorites.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last 11 games as favorites.
- Luis Arraez has recorded at least one Single in 13 of his last 14 appearances against the Braves.
- Manny Machado has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Padres’ last five home games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Luis Arraez has scored at least one run in eight of the Padres’ last nine games as favorites against NL opponents.
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts
- Jorge Soler has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Braves’ last eight road games against NL opponents.
- Marcell Ozuna has hit at least one home run in three of the Braves’ last four games as underdogs against the Padres.
- Michael Harris has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 road appearances against NL opponents.
- Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one Single in each of the Braves’ last seven playoff games as road underdogs.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last nine appearances in night games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
- Ozzie Albies has scored at least one run in each of the Braves’ last seven playoff games against NL West opponents.
- Adam Duvall has recorded a Double in four of the Braves’ last five games as underdogs against the Padres.
- Marcell Ozuna ranks T5th in the league in Home Runs (39) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The San Diego Padres rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1456).
- The San Diego Padres rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.263).
- The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.49).
- The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1553).
San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
Atlanta absolutely fell apart in game one of the doubleheader against the Mets on Monday, but they were able to bounce back with a win in game two to make the postseason. The Braves used a ton of pitching resources on Monday afternoon and with Sale’s injury, the rotation is very thin right now. San Diego is going with Michael King, who has been fantastic over the last few weeks. Give me the Padres to win by at least two runs.