In this article we will formulate a San Diego Padres vs LA Dodgers prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, July 30th at Petco Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Padres Win Streak was Snapped
The San Diego Padres are 57-51 this season and they have won seven of their last eight games. San Diego is coming off of a series win against Baltimore, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Padres swept the Nationals in three games, won two out of three against the Guardians, and lost two out of three against the Braves. San Diego is 8-3 in their last eleven games and they are second in the NL West.
The San Diego pitching staff has a 4.06 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Padres offense has scored 497 runs with a .264 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Manny Machado is batting .262 with 14 home runs and 56 RBI’s for the Padres this season. San Diego has scored at least six runs in four of their last five games.
Dodgers Continue to Lead the NL West
The Los Angeles Dodgers are 63-44 this year and they have lost three of their last five games. Los Angeles is coming off of a series loss against Houston, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Dodgers won three out of four against the Giants, swept the Red Sox in three games, and lost two out of three against the Tigers. Los Angeles is 7-3 in their last 10 games and they are first in the NL West.
The LA pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average. The Dodgers offense has scored 528 runs with a .254 batting average and a .334 on base percentage. Shohei Ohtani is batting .314 with 32 home runs and 76 RBI’s for the Dodgers this season. Los Angeles has scored at least five runs in four of their last six games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Matt Waldron, who is 6-9 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 118.2 innings pitched this season. Waldron has allowed three earned runs or more in four of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Los Angeles is Tyler Glasnow, who is 8-6 with a 3.47 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 114.0 innings pitched this year. Glasnow has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five outings, but did allow five earned runs in each of the other two starts in that span.
Why the Dodgers will beat the Padres
- The road team has won seven of the Padres’ last eight games.
- The Padres have lost six of their last seven games at Petco Park.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven home games following a road loss.
- The favorites have covered the run line in four of the Padres’ last five games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Padres’ last six games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Six of the Dodgers’ last seven road games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Dodgers’ last seven games as road favorites against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last six games as underdogs.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
- Jurickson Profar has hit at least one home run in each of the Padres’ last three night games.
- Jurickson Profar has recorded an RBI in each of the Padres’ last four games against NL West opponents.
- Xander Bogaerts has scored at least one run in each of the Padres’ last six games.
- Jake Cronenworth has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last eight night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Jake Cronenworth has recorded at least one total base in each of the Padres’ last eight night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Luis Arraez has recorded at least one Single in each of his seven previous appearances in night games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
- Donovan Solano has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three appearances with his team as a home underdog against the Dodgers.
Los Angeles Dodgers Player Prop Facts
- Shohei Ohtani has hit a home run in four of the Dodgers’ last six games as road favorites.
- Shohei Ohtani has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Dodgers’ last six games as road favorites against NL West opponents.
- Tyler Glasnow has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Mookie Betts has recorded a Single in each of his last four appearances in night games.
- Mookie Betts has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances in night games.
- Mookie Betts has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in night games.
- Max Muncy has scored a run in 10 of his last 11 appearances with the Dodgers as favorites against the Padres.
- Andy Pages has recorded a Double in three of the Dodgers’ last four games as road favorites against NL West opponents.
San Diego Padres vs LA Dodgers Prediction
These two teams come into this series as the top two teams in the NL West, but the Dodgers have a 6.5 game lead over the Padres. The Dodgers are 29-24 on the road, while the Padres are 26-28 at home this year. San Diego has played very well over the last week and they will start Matt Waldron, who hasn’t been great in recent starts. Los Angeles has dropped three of their last five games, but Glasnow has been mostly solid for them this season. I know Glasnow has had a couple of slip-ups this year, but the good outweighs the bad and I expect the Dodgers to get the win. My San Diego Padres vs LA Dodgers prediction is for LA to win by at least two runs.