The New York Mets and the Tampa Bay Rays meet Sunday in MLB action from Tropicana Field. Here’s a Tampa Bay Rays vs NY Mets Prediction. This will be the final installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The Mets took on the Chicago Cubs early in the week in a four-game series. New York managed to win two of those games, taking Tuesday’s matchup 4-2 and Thursday’s 7-6. After a wild 10-8 loss to Tampa Bay on Friday, in game two the Mets fell again 3-1. Starting pitcher Christian Scott put up 6.2 innings with one earned on five hits and one walk.
In the starter role for the Mets on Sunday it’ll be Luis Severino. This year Severino is 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in six starts. He’s got 31 Ks in 35.0 innings. Severino has a career record of 56-39 with a 3.72 ERA in 147 games (131 starts).
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
Over on the Rays’ side, they played the Milwaukee Brewers in their last set. Tampa Bay won Monday 1-0 then dropped the other pair 8-2 and 7-1. Following their two run win on Friday, in Saturday’s matchup Tampa Bay posted two runs in the eighth inning. Zack Littell put up 6.0 frames as starter with one earned on six hits and no walks alongside seven Ks.
It’ll be Ryan Pepiot in the starting pitcher role for the Rays on Sunday. So far this year Pepiot is 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA in six starts. In 34.2 innings total he has 38 strikeouts. Pepiot is 8-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 23 career games (16 starts). The Rays will meet the White Sox, Mets, and Red Sox after this series.
Mets vs Rays Injury Notes
Mets SP Tylor Megill (shoulder) went 2.2 innings at Double-A Binghamton during a rehab start on Thursday. Megill is on the 15-day IL.
Rays CF Jose Siri (thigh) had his three-game suspension reduced to two games after appeal.
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Ryan Pepiot Record this season: 3-2 ERA: 3.12
- The Rays have won each of their last 11 Sunday day games against NL East opponents.
- The Mets have lost each of their last 11 games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
- The Rays have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against NL East opponents following a win.
- The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last five home games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Why the New York Mets will win
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Luis Severino Record this season: 2-2 ERA: 2.31
- The Rays have lost eight of their last nine games as home favorites following a win.
- The underdogs have won four of the Rays’ last five games at Tropicana Field.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as favorites after playing the previous day.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in 12 of the Rays’ last 13 games at Tropicana Field.
- The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games as favorites.
Total Runs Facts
- Six of the Mets’ last seven day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Rays’ last five day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last five games as favorites.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last four games as road underdogs.
Tampa Bay Rays vs NY Mets Prediction
I’ll lean toward the Rays. Tampa Bay has been pretty erratic with their starting pitching lately, but Pepiot has been on point. In his last three starts Pepiot has just two earned runs in 18.0 combined innings on eight hits and five walks. He’s 2-0 in that trio. As for Severino, he’s been pretty solid himself with four earned in 20.0 total innings over his last three starts.
On Saturday Tampa Bay got two hits from Yandy Diaz (run), Isaac Paredes (run; walk; RBI) and Ben Rortvedt. Otherwise there weren’t too many offensive fireworks, but the pitching was great. I like the Rays to keep it going in the finale.