In this article we will formulate a Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 4th at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game four in the series.
Blue Jays Falling in the AL East
The Toronto Blue Jays are 39-47 this season and they have lost three of their last four games. Toronto has lost games one and three in this series, but they did win game two by a score of 7-6. Prior to this series, the Blue Jays split four games with the Yankees, split two games with the Red Sox, and lost all three against the Guardians. Toronto is 4-11 in their last 15 games and they are last in the AL East.
The Toronto pitching staff has a 4.36 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .253 opponent batting average. The Blue Jays offense has scored 345 runs with a .234 batting average and a .311 on base percentage. Vladimir Guerrero is batting .297 with 13 home runs and 50 RBI’s for the Blue Jays this season. Toronto has scored two runs or fewer in three of their last four games.
Astros are Charging in the AL West
The Houston Astros are 44-42 this year and they have won four of their last five games. Houston has won games one and three in this series by scores of 3-1 and 9-2. Prior to this series, the Astros won two out of three against the Mets, won both games against the Rockies, and swept the Orioles. Houston is 11-2 in their last 13 games and they are just two games behind Seattle in the AL West.
The Houston pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .234 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 406 runs with a .264 batting average and a .323 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez is batting .303 with 19 home runs and 49 RBI’s for the Astros this season. Houston has scored at least five runs in 10 of their last 12 games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Chris Bassitt, who is 7-6 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 97.1 innings pitched this year. Bassitt has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Framber Valdez, who is 6-5 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 85.1 innings pitched this year. Valdez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts.
Why the Blue Jays will beat the Astros
- The Blue Jays have won five of their last six games as underdogs against the Astros following a loss.
- The Astros have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Blue Jays following a win.
- The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Thursday games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The Blue Jays have covered the run line in five of their last six games as underdogs against the Astros following a loss.
Total Runs Facts
- Nine of the Blue Jays’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Five of the Astros’ last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last four day games.
Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit a home run in four of his last seven appearances with the Blue Jays as underdogs against AL opponents.
- Chris Bassitt has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in day games.
- Chris Bassitt has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against AL opponents.
- Danny Jansen has scored at least one run in each of his last six Thursday appearances with the Blue Jays as underdogs.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one Single in 12 of his last 13 appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
- Justin Turner has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances with his team as a home underdog against AL West opponents.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one total base in 13 of his last 14 appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one hit in 13 of his last 14 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
Houston Astros Player Prop Facts
- Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one Double in four of the Astros’ last five games against AL opponents.
- Yordan Alvarez has hit a home run in each of his last five road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Framber Valdez has recorded a win in each of his last five appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.
- Jeremy Pena has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven appearances against AL East opponents.
- Yordan Alvarez has recorded two or more RBIs in each of his last five road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Framber Valdez has recorded five or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.
- Yordan Alvarez has scored at least one run in each of his last eight road appearances.
- Jose Altuve has recorded at least one Single in each of the Astros’ last nine Thursday games.
- Kyle Tucker has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 Thursday appearances against teams that held a losing record.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Prediction
Houston comes into this game playing very well and they nearly have erased Seattle’s big lead in the AL West. The Astros are only two games behind Seattle, but they are just 20-23 on the road this year. Toronto is 21-23 at home this season and they are really struggling in the AL East. The Blue Jays will have Bassitt on the mound, who has been very good over the last few weeks. The Astros are going with Valdez, who doesn’t have the best numbers on the season and has pitched poorly in two of his last three road starts. Bassitt has been great for Toronto recently and I don’t trust Valdez with how he has pitched over the last couple of weeks. My Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros prediction is for the Blue Jays to win.