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Washington Nationals vs NY Mets Prediction 7-4-24 Picks

NY Mets (42-42) vs. Washington Nationals (40-46)
July 4, 2024 11:05 am EDT
The Line: Washington Nationals +100 / NY Mets -120; Over/Under: +9.5
(Get latest betting odds)

In this article we will formulate a Washington Nationals vs NY Mets prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 4th at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game four in the series. 

Nationals Going for the Series Split 

The Washington Nationals are 40-46 this season and they have lost three of their last four games. Washington lost the first two games in this series, but they did win game three by a score of 7-5 on Wednesday. Prior to this series, the Nationals lost two out of three against the Rays, lost all three against the Padres, and won two out of three against the Rockies. Washington is just 2-7 in their last nine games and they are fourth in the NL East standings. 

The Washington pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .252 opponent batting average. The Nationals offense has scored 357 runs with a .235 batting average and a .304 on base percentage. CJ Abrams is batting .283 with 13 home runs and 43 RBI’s for the Nationals this season. Washington has allowed at least five runs in seven of their last nine games. 

Mets Offense Continues to Rake 

The New York Mets are 42-42 this year and they have lost three of their last five games. New York won the first two games in this series by scores of 9-7 and 7-2, but did lose game three. Prior to this series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Astros, won both games against the Yankees, and won two out of three against the Cubs. New York is 6-3 in their last nine games and they are third in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.17 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 414 runs with a .249 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .244 with 18 home runs and 48 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York has scored at least five runs in nine straight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for New York is Jose Quintana, who is 3-5 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 82.2 innings pitched this year. Quintana has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Jake Irvin, who is 6-6 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 98.0 innings pitched this season. Irvin has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five outings. 

Why the Nationals will beat the Mets

  • The Nationals have won eight of their last nine day games against NL East opponents.
  • The Mets have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a road loss.
  • The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last eight day games against NL East opponents following a win.
  • The Mets have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as favorites following a road loss.
  • The Mets have lost the first inning in each of their last five Thursday day games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road favorites.
  • The Nationals have led after 5 innings in each of their last five day games against NL East opponents.

Why the Mets will beat the Nationals

  • The Mets have won each of their last eight games at Nationals Park following a loss.
  • The Nationals have lost each of their last 11 Thursday home games against NL East opponents.
  • The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last eight games against National League opponents following a loss.
  • The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Mets following a home win.
  • The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

  • Seven of the Mets’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Five of the Nationals’ last six games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last six games at Nationals Park.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last five home games.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

  • Lane Thomas has hit a home run in three of the Nationals’ last six games against NL East opponents.
  • Harold Ramirez has recorded an RBI in each of his last four appearances against NL opponents.
  • Lane Thomas has scored at least one run in seven of the Nationals’ last eight day games.
  • Harold Ramirez has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances in day games.
  • Joey Meneses has recorded at least one hit in each of the Nationals’ last six games against NL East opponents.
  • Jesse Winker has recorded at least one total base in nine of his last 10 appearances against the Mets.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • Brandon Nimmo has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances.
  • Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games against the Nationals.
  • Jose Quintana has recorded a win in three of his four previous road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Mets’ last eight day games.
  • Tyrone Taylor has scored at least one run in each of his last six road appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • J.D. Martinez has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last nine appearances against NL opponents.
  • Jose Quintana has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his four previous road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Starling Marte has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances at Nationals Park against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a losing record.

Washington Nationals vs NY Mets Prediction 

Washington was able to pick up a huge win on Wednesday night in this series, but they have not played well over the last two weeks. The Nationals are 18-21 at home, while the Mets are 21-17 on the road this year. New York’s offense is red hot right now and that is the main reason they are back at .500 after that terrible start to the year. The Mets are starting Quintana, who has been very good over his last three starts. The Nationals are going with Irvin, who has been one of the better pitchers in the division so far this season. Both of these starting pitchers come into this start flying high and I think they will find more success, especially with this early start time. My Washington Nationals vs NY Mets prediction is for this game to go under the total. 

David Racey's Free Pick: Under 9.5

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David Racey

David started writing about sports in 2015, but sports has been his passion for as long as he can remember. David spends most of his free time watching pretty much anything sports related from Baseball to Tennis and everything in between. David likes to analyze statistics and recent results to form an unbiased opinion on whatever game he is breaking down. Follow David on Twitter at @itsyerboi41

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