In this article, we will formulate a Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, December 1st at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 13 matchup.
Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-9 this year after they lost to Detroit by a score of 52-6 in their last game. Jacksonville led 3-0 in the first quarter, but they allowed 52 of the next 55 points in the game for the blowout loss. The Jaguars were outgained by a total of 645-170, lost the turnover battle 1-0, and went 2-10 on third down in the game. Mac Jones threw for 138 yards and one interception, while Brian Thomas Jr. caught five passes for 82 yards.
Prior to that loss, the Jaguars lost three games in a row against Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Green Bay. The Jacksonville offense has scored 18.9 points per game with 189.2 passing yards and 101.6 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 28.7 points per game this season. Trevor Lawrence is nursing an injury, so we may see Mac Jones under center in this game.
Houston Texans Betting Preview
The Houston Texans are 7-5 this season after they lost to Tennessee by a score of 32-27 in their last game. Houston led 27-23 in the fourth quarter, but they allowed the last nine points in the game for the loss. The Texans were outgained by a total of 369-260, won the turnover battle 3-2, and went 3-13 on third down in the game. CJ Stroud threw for 247 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Nico Collins caught five passes for 92 yards and one score.
Prior to that loss, the Texans defeated Dallas by a score of 34-10 but did lose to the Lions and Jets before that. The Houston offense has scored 23.8 points per game with 221.4 passing yards and 114.6 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 22.3 points per game this season. CJ Stroud has completed 63.1% of his passes for 2,875 yards, 14 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, while Joe Mixon has rushed for 786 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Why the Texans will beat the Jaguars
- The Texans have won each of their last nine road games against AFC South opponents.
- The Jaguars have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs.
- The Texans have covered the spread in each of their last seven games following a home loss.
- The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four December home games against AFC opponents.
- The Texans have won the first quarter in each of their last five games following a home loss.
- The Texans have won the first half in each of their last 11 games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
- The Texans have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five games following a home loss.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of the Texans’ last eight Week 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Jaguars’ last four games as underdogs following a road loss has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the last seven games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.
Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts
- Travis Etienne has recorded 16+ receiving yards in each of the Jaguars’ last seven December games.
- Travis Etienne has recorded 50+ rushing yards in seven of the Jaguars’ last eight games against AFC South opponents.
- Christian Kirk has scored at least one touchdown in four of his five previous appearances with his team as an underdog against AFC South opponents.
- Trevor Lawrence has recorded 258+ passing yards in five of his last six appearances at EverBank Stadium.
- Christian Kirk has recorded 76+ rushing and receiving yards in four of his last five appearances with the Jaguars as home underdogs against AFC opponents.
- Trevor Lawrence has recorded 24+ completions in five of the Jaguars’ last six December games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
- Trevor Lawrence has thrown three or more touchdowns in three of the Jaguars’ last five December games as underdogs.
- Heading into Week 13, Travis Etienne ranks 1st in the league amongst qualified players for broken tackle percentage (82.0%) this season.
Houston Texans Player Prop Facts
- Joe Mixon has scored the first touchdown in three of the Texans’ last four games.
- Joe Mixon has recorded 19+ receiving yards in each of his six previous appearances with the Texans as favorites.
- Joe Mixon has recorded 102+ rushing yards in each of his last five road appearances.
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 247+ passing yards in five of the Texans’ last six games as favorites.
- Joe Mixon has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last seven appearances following a loss.
- Stefon Diggs has recorded 75+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last five Sunday appearances with the Texans as favorites.
- Joe Mixon has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Texans’ last four road games.
- C.J. Stroud has recorded 23+ completions in seven of the Texans’ last eight games as favorites following a loss.
- C.J. Stroud has thrown two touchdowns in four of the Texans’ last five games against AFC South opponents.
- Heading into Week 13, Ka’imi Fairbairn ranks 1st in the NFL in 50+ yard field goals made (12) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Heading into Week 13, the Jaguars rank 32nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game (413.7) this season.
- Heading into Week 13, the Jaguars rank 32nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (278.3) this season.
- Heading into Week 13, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in H1 win percentage (83.3) this season.
- Heading into Week 13, the Texans rank 32nd in the NFL in H2 win percentage (16.7) this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans Prediction
Jacksonville comes into this game trying to snap their four-game losing streak and they have scored a total of 13 points in their last two games. Houston has lost three of their last four games and just allowed 32 points to a bad Tennessee team. The Texans are the way better team in this matchup, but they have played very poorly over the last few weeks. Jacksonville is dealing with an injury to Lawrence, but if he is able to play, I think the Jags could pull off an upset. I don’t think Lawrence will end up playing, so give me the Texans here.