In this article, we will formulate a Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, November 24th at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 12 matchup.
Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
The Miami Dolphins are 4-6 this year after they defeated the Raiders by a score of 34-19 in their last game. Miami led 10-6 at halftime and 24-19 in the fourth, but they pulled away with 10 points late. The Dolphins outgained the Raiders by a total of 353-328, won the turnover battle 1-0, and went 8-12 on third down in the game. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 288 yards and three touchdowns, while De’Von Achane rushed for 73 yards and one score.
Prior to that win, the Dolphins defeated the Rams by a score of 23-15 but did lose the three games prior to that. The Miami offense has scored 18.1 points per game with 197 passing yards and 122 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 22.1 points per game this season. Tua Tagovailoa has completed 73.4% of his passes for 1,443 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Tyreek Hill has caught 44 passes for 523 yards and three scores.
New England Patriots Betting Preview
The New England Patriots are 3-8 this season after they lost to the Rams by a score of 28-22 in their last game. New England trailed 14-10 at halftime and 28-13 in the fourth quarter, but they did win the fourth quarter 9-0 in the loss. The Patriots were outgained by a total of 402-382, lost the turnover battle 2-0, and went 6-14 on third down in the game. Drake Maye threw for 282 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while Kendrick Bourne caught five passes for 70 yards and one score.
Prior to that loss, the Patriots beat the Bears by a score of 19-3 but did lose to Tennessee before that. The NE offense has scored 16.5 points per game with 165.9 passing yards and 115.3 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 22.5 points per game this season. Drake Maye has completed 66.8% of his passes for 1,236 yards, nine touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Hunter Henry has caught 46 passes for 491 yards and one score.
Why the Patriots will cover
- The Patriots have won 12 of their last 13 November games against AFC East opponents.
- The Dolphins have lost three of their last four games as home favorites.
- The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games in Florida.
- The Patriots have covered the spread in five of their last six November games against AFC opponents.
- The Dolphins have lost the first half in four of their last five games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- The underdogs have won the first quarter in four of the Patriots’ last five games.
- The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games as underdogs against AFC East opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the last seven games between teams from the same division has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of the Patriots’ last eight games against the Dolphins following a loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Dolphins’ last seven home games against AFC East opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts
- Raheem Mostert has scored at least one touchdown in 10 of his last 11 appearances with the Dolphins as favorites following a win.
- De’Von Achane has recorded 73+ rushing yards in each of the Dolphins’ last four games following a win.
- Odell Beckham Jr. has recorded 18+ receiving yards in 17 of his 18 previous November appearances with his team as a favorite.
- Jaylen Waddle has recorded 54+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of the Dolphins’ last nine November games as favorites.
- Raheem Mostert has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Dolphins’ last four games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 243+ passing yards in seven of the Dolphins’ last eight November games as favorites.
- Tua Tagovailoa has thrown two or more touchdowns in four of his five previous November appearances with the Dolphins as home favorites.
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Dolphins’ last five November home games.
- Heading into Week 12, De’Von Achane is the only player in the NFL to record 3+ rushing and 3+ receiving TDs this season.
New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
- Rhamondre Stevenson has scored at least one touchdown in three of his last four appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
- Drake Maye has recorded 38+ rushing yards in three of the Patriots’ last four games against AFC opponents.
- Hunter Henry has recorded 41+ receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last four games against AFC opponents.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 75+ rushing and receiving yards in five of the Patriots’ last six November road games.
- Drake Maye has recorded 206+ passing yards in three of the Patriots’ last four games against AFC opponents.
- Drake Maye has recorded 20+ completions in three of the Patriots’ last four games against AFC opponents.
- Kyle Dugger is just one away from 10 career interceptions.
Matchup/League Facts
- Heading into Week 12, the Dolphins rank 31st in the NFL in total punt yards (1398) this season.
- Heading into Week 12, the Dolphins rank T31st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (27.8%) this season.
- Heading into Week 12, the Patriots rank 32nd in the NFL in passing yards per game (165.9) this season.
- Heading into Week 12, the Patriots rank 31st in the NFL in yards per game (281.2) this season.
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction
The Dolphins come into this matchup looking for their third win in a row and they will be at home for this game. Miami is currently second in the AFC East, but they are 4.5 games behind the Bills. New England has alternated wins and losses over their last five games and they have done a good job of staying competitive in their last four. The Patriots offense is definitely a concern, but the defense has played better over the last four weeks. I think the Dolphins will get the win in this game, but I am taking the points with New England, as I think they are trending in the right direction and I don’t fully trust Miami to keep closing out games strong.