Independence Bowl, Missouri Tigers Vs. North Carolina Tar Heels 12/26/11: Steve’s Free College Football Pick Against the Spread Written by Steve on December 16, 2011
North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) at Missouri Tigers (7-5)
College Football: Monday, December 26, 2011 at 5:00 pm (Independence Stadium) Get Tickets
The Line: Missouri Tigers -3.5 — Over/Under: 53.5 See The Latest Odds
ESPN2 HD / ESPN3.COM
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Both the Missouri Tigers and the North Carolina Tar Heels finished the season with a record of 7-5, and it should be a fun game to watch this Bowl season at Independence season.
This was the final season for the Missouri Tigers as members of the Big 12, and things won't get any easier for Mizzou next season when they head to the SEC. Missouri was picked to be down this season with the loss of their start quarterback Blaine Gabbert to the NFL, and the season basically turned out as many predicted as the Tigers won the games they were supposed to, and lost the ones they were supposed to with the possible exceptions of losses to Baylor and Arizona State. The Tigers offense was predictably down a bit this year, but still very effective averaging over 32 points per game, ranking them 33rd in the nation. Defensively the Tigers are allowing 23.5 points per game putting them 44th in the nation, and giving the Tigers a point differential of +8.5.
The North Carolina Tar Heels had an up and down season on and off the field. North Carolina basically played their schedule out as predicted, with the exception of a shut out 13-0 loss to the NC State Wolfpack. The Tar Heels offense struggled at times this season and never really looked that dynamic. North Carolina is averaging 28.3 points per game this season, and most of their yardage has come through the air with NC averaging 249 yards per game with their air attack. Defensively the Tar Heels took a definite step back giving up an average of 23.5 points per game, ranking their defensive unit 44th overall in the nation in scoring defense.
Missouri is 2-3-1 against the spread in their last six games, and the total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 games for the Tar Heels.
This is a tough one to call, the Tigers have better numbers this season but the Big 12 is far from a defensive conference so there is the question as to just how tough the defenses the Tigers faced actually were. I think the safest play here is on the under as I have no faith in the Tar Heel offense, and the Tigers offense will no doubt struggle, especially with the possible distraction of moving to the SEC next season, it's just hard to judge their motivation. Not my favorite play of the bowl season, but having to choose I'll take the under here.
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