Phillies vs Padres Prediction 7/1/25 MLB Picks Today

The San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Tuesday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phillies vs Padres Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send out Nick Pivetta for the start here, and Pivetta is 8-2 with a 3.36 ERA and 101 strikeouts this season. In his career, Pivetta is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 8 strikeouts against the Phillies. The Philadelphia Phillies will start Cristopher Sanchez here, and Sanchez is 6-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 103 strikeouts this season. In his career, Sanchez is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts against the Padres.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to rebound from a 4-0 loss at the hands of the Phillies in Monday’s series opener to sit at 45-39 on the year. After this series, the Padres will head home for a set against the Texas Rangers.

Padres Drop Back-To-Back Games

Manny Machado has 93 hits, including a team-high 20 doubles, 13 home runs, 47 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases, while Fernando Tatis Jr. has 80 hits with a team-high 15 home runs and 37 RBIs, along with 17 stolen bases of his own this season. Luis Arraez has added 89 hits with 17 doubles, 4 triples, 4 home runs, and 31 RBIs, while Jackson Merrill’s added 58 hits with 5 home runs and 26 RBIs as well. Xander Bogaerts also has 17 doubles and 13 stolen bases this season. Gavin Sheets also has 14 doubles, 13 home runs, and 49 RBIs this season.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won four of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as home favorites against NL West opponents following a home win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Padres’ last eight games.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four home games against National League opponents following a home win.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Nick Pivetta has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Padres as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one Double in four of the Padres’ last five games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Luis Campusano has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against the Phillies.
• Nick Pivetta ranks T5th in the league for Wins (8) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to build on their win over the Padres from Saturday’s game to sit at 50-35 on the year. After this series, the Phillies will duke it out against the Cincinnati Reds at home.

Phillies Win Two In A Row

Nick Castellanos has 89 hits with 22 doubles, including 9 home runs and 44 RBIs, while Kyle Schwarber has 77 hits with a team-high 25 home runs and 57 RBIs, but also has a team-high 95 strikeouts as well on the year. Bryce Harper has 8 stolen bases, 13 doubles, 9 home runs, and 34 RBIs. Trea Turner also has 100 hits with a team-high 20 stolen bases. Max Kepler has 14 doubles and Bryson Stott has 8 doubles, 2 triples, 5 homers, and 34 RBIs, while Stott also has 12 stolen bases this season.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last nine night games against the Phillies following a road loss.
• The Phillies have won each of their last six night games against NL West opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last five games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in six of the Phillies’ last eight games as favorites against the Padres.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 10 night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Max Kepler has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against NL West opponents.
• Trea Turner ranks 4th in the league in Hits (101) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Phillies’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Padres’ last five games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Phillies vs Padres Prediction

I’m on the Phillies here. I get that this is a decent amount of plus money being tied to Nick Pivetta here, who has a solid record on paper, but he’s been hit hard at times. The Padres’ offense has not been able to hit lefties all that well this season. The Phillies are still a solid lineup, and while the bullpen has been questionable at times, I think it’ll be good enough here for the win. Give me the Phillies here.