Red Sox vs Rays Prediction 7-12-25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, July 12th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 51-45 this season after they won game one by a score of 5-4 on Friday. Boston trailed 4-1 in the third inning, but they were able to score the last four runs in the game to steal the win. The Red Sox recorded eight hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Rafaela, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. Boston started Dobbins, who allowed two hits and one earned run over 1.2 innings, while Murphy picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox swept the Rockies in three games, and they also swept the Nationals in three games. Boston has won eight games in a row, and they are currently third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .247 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 486 runs with a .256 batting average and a .327 on-base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with 18 home runs and 52 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 15 home runs and 57 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Garrett Crochet, who is 9-4 with a 2.39 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 120.1 innings pitched this season. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 50-45 this year after they lost game one in dramatic fashion on Friday night. Tampa Bay led 4-1 early in the game, but they didn’t get any offense over the last six innings, and they blew the save in the ninth for the loss. The Rays recorded eight hits in the game, and they were led by Caminero, who went 1-4 with one RBI in the loss. Tampa Bay started Rasmussen, who allowed three hits and one earned run over 2.0 innings, while Fairbanks blew the save and picked up the loss. 

Prior to this series, the Rays lost two out of three against the Tigers and two out of three against the Twins. Tampa Bay has lost nine of its last twelve games, and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 448 runs with a .259 batting average and a .322 on-base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 23 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 19 home runs and 50 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Shane Baz, who is 8-4 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 103.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Rays

• The Red Sox have won each of their last eight games.
• The Rays have lost each of their last four games at Fenway Park.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against the Rays following a win.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against the Red Sox following a loss.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in four of their last five day games at Fenway Park.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last three day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Rays’ last 10 day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Red Sox’s last five games as favorites against the Rays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Red Sox’s last nine day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Rays’ last five day games at Fenway Park.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances after playing the previous day.
• Masataka Yoshida has recorded a Double in five of his last six appearances with the Red Sox as home favorites.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 10 games as home favorites against AL opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Ha-Seong Kim has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances.
• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against AL East opponents.

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction 

Boston was trailing for most of the game on Friday night, but they found a way to steal the win, and they continue to stack wins together. The Red Sox are 30-20 at home this year, while the Rays are 22-20 on the road. Tampa Bay is trending in the opposite direction, and they are starting Baz, who has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts. Boston is going with Crochet, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five. Take the Red Sox by at least two runs here.