In this article we will formulate a Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, July 9th at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Brewers Lead is Shrinking
The Milwaukee Brewers are 53-38 this year and they have lost three of their last four games. Milwaukee is coming off of a series loss against the Dodgers, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Brewers split four games with the Rockies, won two out of three against the Cubs, and swept the Rangers in three games. Milwaukee is 9-5 in their last 14 games, but their lead in the NL Central is down to 4.5 games over the Cardinals.
The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 439 runs with a .256 batting average and a .332 on base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .234 with 13 home runs and 58 RBI’s for the Brewers this season. Milwaukee has scored three runs or fewer in three of their last five games.
Pirates Looking for Consistent Offense
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 43-47 this season and they have lost three of their last five games. Pittsburgh is coming off of a series split with the Mets, where they won two games and lost two games. Prior to that series, the Pirates lost two out of three against the Cardinals, lost two out of three against the Braves, and won two out of three against the Reds. Pittsburgh is 4-6 in their last 10 games and they are third in the NL Central.
The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .248 opponent batting average. The Pirates offense has scored 370 runs with a .230 batting average and a .299 on base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .278 with 16 home runs and 54 RBI’s for the Pirates this season. Pittsburgh has scored two runs or fewer in five of their last ten games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Colin Rea, who is 8-2 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 94.1 innings pitched this season. Rea has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Quinn Priester, who is 0-5 with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over 31.2 innings pitched this year. Priester has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts, but hasn’t pitched in the majors since June 2nd.
Why the Brewers will beat the Pirates
- The Pirates have lost each of their last eight night games at American Family Field following a win.
- The Brewers have won each of their last eight home games against NL Central opponents following a road win.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last eight home games against NL Central opponents following a road win.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games against the Brewers at American Family Field following a home win.
- The Brewers have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Tuesday games against the Pirates at American Family Field.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Pirates’ last four night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Seven of the Brewers’ last nine night games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last eight games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last three night games.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
- Christian Yelich has recorded at least one Single in 11 of his last 12 appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- Christian Yelich has recorded at least one hit in 11 of his last 12 appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- Gary Sanchez has recorded at least one RBI in four of his five previous appearances against the Pirates after not playing the previous day.
- Gary Sanchez has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against the Pirates after not playing the previous day.
- Christian Yelich has recorded two or more total bases in four of his last five home appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Christian Yelich has scored a run in each of his last 11 home appearances after not playing the previous day.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Single in each of the Pirates’ last four road games against NL Central opponents.
- Oneil Cruz has recorded a Double in three of the Pirates’ last four games against the Brewers.
- Connor Joe has recorded an RBI in each of his last three road appearances against the Brewers.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 11 road games against NL Central opponents.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one total base in each of the Pirates’ last 11 road games against NL Central opponents.
- Andrew McCutchen has scored a run in five of the Pirates’ last six games against NL Central opponents.
- Rowdy Tellez has hit at least one home run in each of the Pirates’ last two night games.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Milwaukee has played pretty well over the last two weeks, but St. Louis is charging hard in the NL Central, so this is a big series for the Brewers. Milwaukee is 27-13 at home, while Pittsburgh is 21-23 on the road this year. Pittsburgh has been competitive for most of the season and their pitching staff has been very good, but the offense has let them down at times. The Pirates are going with Priester, who is coming off of the IL, but didn’t pitch well before getting injured. The Brewers are starting Rea, who has been very good over the last couple of weeks and has solid numbers on the season. Milwaukee has been one of the best home teams in the MLB so far this season and I think Rea is way better than Priester, so my Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction is for the Brewers to win by at least two runs.