In this article we will formulate a Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, May 7th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in this series.
Phillies Look for Seven in a Row
The Philadelphia Phillies are 25-11 this season and they have won six games in a row. Philadelphia is coming off of a series win against San Francisco, where they won all four games and out scored the Giants by a total of 29-11 in the series. Prior to that series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Angels, swept the Padres, and split a four game series with the Reds. Philadelphia has won 10 of their last 11 games and they are now first in the NL East over the Braves and Nationals.
The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.27 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a .221 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 178 runs with a .256 batting average and a .332 on base percentage. Alec Bohm is batting .349 with four home runs and 32 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia is fifth in the MLB in team ERA and they are fourth in runs scored, scoring at least five runs in nine of their last eleven games.
Blue Jays Looking for Answers
The Toronto Blue Jays are 16-19 this year and they have lost nine of their last twelve games. Toronto is coming off of a series loss against the Nationals, where they lost two out of three games and were out scored 23-17 in the process. Prior to that series, the Nationals lost two out of three against Kansas City, lost two out of three against the Dodgers, and lost three out of four to the Royals. Toronto has only won back to back games once in their last 14 games and they are dead last in the AL East behind the Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays.
The Toronto pitching staff has a 4.51 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a .259 opponent batting average. The Blues Jays offense has scored 128 runs with a .226 batting average and a .308 on base percentage. Daulton Varsho is batting .236 with six home runs and 16 RBI’s for the Blue Jays this season. Toronto is 25th in runs scored in the MLB and they have scored three runs or fewer in nine of their last twelve games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Jose Berrios, who is 4-2 with a 1.44 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over 43.2 innings pitched this year. Berrios has allowed a total of four earned runs over his last five starts (31.2 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Cristopher Sanchez, who is 1-3 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over 29.1 innings pitched this season. Sanchez has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts, but did allow four earned runs in five innings against the Angels in his last start.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez Record this season: 1-3 ERA: 3.68
- The Phillies have won each of their last 10 games at Citizens Bank Park.
- The Blue Jays have lost five of their last six road games.
- The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last 11 night games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last 14 games against opponents that held a losing record.
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Jose Berrios Record this season: 4-2 ERA: 1.44
- The Blue Jays have won five of their last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Blue Jays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against NL East opponents following a road loss.
- The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Phillies’ last four night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Blue Jays’ last four road games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last eight games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last five games as underdogs.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
The Phillies come into this game as one of the hottest teams in the MLB and they are 14-6 at home this season. Toronto has really struggled this season and they are just 8-12 on the road. The Phillies have been very hot at the plate during this winning streak, while also pitching very well. Sanchez is going to be on the mound for Philadelphia and even though he struggled in his last start, I like him to bounce back here. One of the lone bright spots for Toronto this season has been Jose Berrios, who has been dominant this season. My Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction is for this game to go under the total.