Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 5-7-24 Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, May 7th at the Great American Ballpark. 

Reds Blown Out in Last Game

The Reds in the last game faced off against the Baltimore Orioles, and the pitching was awful, giving up 11 runs on the way to the ten-run defeat. Jake Fraley finished with a hit and an RBI, but he drove in the only run. The Reds are averaging 4.47 runs, while their pitching is giving up 4.35 runs per game. The offense is ranked 15th in the league, while the pitching is ranked 16th. Getting the start for the Reds will be Frankie Montas who sits with a 2-2 record and an ERA of 4.19. His last appearance was against the Angels, he went 0.2 innings, giving up zero hits and zero runs. Against the Seattle Mariners two starts ago he went two innings giving up three hits and five runs. If the Reds want to find success in this game, Montas is going to need to be a lot better.

Diamondbacks Got Back On Right Track

The Diamondbacks had lost three games in a row before they dominated the last game against the San Diego Padres. The Diamondbacks scored 11 runs and that was enough for the seven point victory. Jake McCarthy finished with three hits and two RBIs. Christian Walker also finished with two hits and two RBIs. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.0 runs, while their pitching is giving up 4.8 runs per game. The offense is ranked 5th in the league, while the pitching is ranked 24th. They currently have a run differential of 0.2 which is 15th in the league. They are currently batting .249 which is 9th in the league. Getting the start for the Diamondbacks will be Zac Gallen who sits with a 3-2 record and an ERA of 3.38. In his last start against the Seattle Mariners, he went five innings giving up three hits and three runs. Two starts ago against the San Francisco Giants, he went five innings, giving up nine hits and five runs. 

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Frankie Montas Record this season: 2-2 ERA: 4.19
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last seven night games following a win.
• The Reds have won five of their last six games as home underdogs following a loss.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last six games as road favorites.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games as favorites.
• The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zac Gallen Record this season: 3-2 ERA: 3.38
• The Reds have lost each of their last nine games as home underdogs against NL West opponents following a home loss.
• The Diamondbacks have won each of their last four games at Great American Ball Park following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last seven road games against the Reds following a win.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last five games against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last four road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Reds’ last five home games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last five games as road favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last three night games.

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Zac Gallen hasn’t been good this season and I really don’t trust him here. Two starts ago against the Giants he went five innings giving up nine hits and five runs. Two appearances ago, Montas gave up five runs in two winnings, and he’s going to really struggle again here. The Reds and the Diamondbacks are both going to run up the score here against the starting pitchers, and that will be the difference here. Back the over.