The Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Monday in MLB action from PNC Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pirates vs Marlins Prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Miami Marlins will start Eury Perez in this one, and Perez last pitched in the majors in 2023, going 5-6 with a 3.15 ERA and 108 strikeouts. This will be Perez’s second career start against the Pirates. Mike Burrows will get the start for the Pirates and is 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA and 11 strikeouts this season. This will be Burrows’ first career start against the Marlins.
Miami Marlins Recap
The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to bounce back from a 3-2 loss at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday to slip to 24-39 on the year. After this series, the Marlins will head on the road for a set against the Washington Nationals.
Marlins Drop 6 Of Their Last 7
Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with 55 hits, including 6 doubles and a team-high 11 stolen bases, while Eric Wagaman has 55 hits with 13 doubles. Otto Lopez has 40 hits with 7 doubles and 5 home runs with 23 RBIs, and Matt Mervis has 7 home runs and 14 RBIs so far this year. Kyle Stowers has 58 hits with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 10 home runs, and 33 RBIs, but also has 67 strikeouts, while Mervis has 50 K’s as well so far this season.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Pirates have lost each of their last eight night games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Marlins have won four of their last five games as underdogs following a road loss.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games as favorites.
- The road team has covered the run line in each of the Marlins’ last seven games.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in each of the Marlins’ last two road games against NL Central opponents.
- Jesus Sanchez has recorded an RBI in each of the Marlins’ last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Otto Lopez has scored a run in each of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against the Pirates.
- Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 Monday appearances.
- Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one Single in each of the Marlins’ last five night games.
Pittsburgh Pirates Recap
The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to build on their 2-1 win over the Philadelphia Phillies from Sunday’s series finale to improve to 26-40 on the year. After this series, the Pirates will head to Wrigley Field for a series against the Chicago Cubs.
Pirates Win Three Straight
Bryan Reynolds has 58 hits with 9 doubles, 8 home runs, and 36 RBIs while also leading the Pirates with 73 strikeouts so far this season. Oneil Cruz has posted a team-high 12 home runs and 28 RBIs with 23 stolen bases, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa has 55 hits with 9 stolen bases. Emmanuel Valdez also has a pair of triples this season. Tommy Pham has 4 doubles and Andrew McCutchen has 49 hits with 9 doubles, and KeBryan Hayes has 51 hits with 18 RBIs and 6 stolen bases.
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Marlins have lost each of their last 22 Monday road games.
- The Pirates have won 14 of their last 15 night games against the Marlins following a home win.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Pirates following a loss.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last four night games against National League opponents.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in two of the Pirates’ last three games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Oneil Cruz has recorded an RBI in each of his last four home appearances against the Marlins.
- Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances after playing the previous day.
- Adam Frazier has scored at least one run in each of his last eight appearances against the Marlins at PNC Park.
- Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents.
- Oneil Cruz ranks 1st in the league in Steals (23) this season.
Total Runs Facts
- Eight of the Pirates’ last nine home games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Marlins’ last six games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction
I’m on the Pirates here. I get the case to be made for the Marlins, as Perez is still one of the better options that Miami has in that rotation. However, it’s still his first start at the major league level in over a season, and the Pirates are coming off arguably their best series of the season so far, and Burrows looked pretty solid in his last outing. The Marlins are just not a team I’m excited to back right now, though I think Perez could be their bright spot going forward. Still, I have to roll with the Pirates here.