North Texas vs Northwestern State 9/4/21 College Football Picks, Odds, Predictions

The North Texas Mean Green meet the Northwestern State Demons in week 1 college football action from Apogee Stadium on Saturday night.

The Northwestern State Demons will be looking to bounce back after a frustrating spring season that saw the Demons go just 1-5 in Southland conference play, with the five losses coming by an average of just eight points per game with only one loss by more than the eight point average. Bryce Rivers had a successful season after transferring from UTSA, throwing for 1,091 yards and 6 touchdowns while Scooter Adams, a JUCO transfer, rushed for a team-high 681 yards and 7 scores on the ground. Marquise Bridges will lead the Demons’ receiving group after a huge game against Sam Houston State in the spring. On defense, Jomard Valsin is back after leading the Demons with tackles, TFLs and sacks while Blake Stephenson was second in the three stats with an interception as well last year.

The North Texas Mean Green will be looking to rebound from a disappointing 1-11 season including an 0-8 mark in C-USA conference play in 2020. Stone Smartt and Hayden Wolff are the two returning pivots for the Mean Green while DJ Mack transfers in from UCF to offer North Texas a dual threat QB to help kickstart one of the worst offensive units in the country. It will be running back by committee for the Mean Green until a true top back emerges but the wide receiver group is a plus, with leading yardage receiver Aaron Moore back after logging three of UNT’s five TD passes last season. Nigel Fitzgerald is also in the mix as a 6’5” speed threat and matchup nightmare for opposing defenses while Ali Jennings, Trey Blount and Zack Kuntz all transfer in to bolster North Texas’ offense. Defensively, Jordan Young is the best thing North Texas has going for them, after he logged 86 tackles in 2019. The line will need work, but Marcus Haynes and Tyre Bibby will be the main returners tasked with leading the push up front for the Mean Green. Geronda Hall also returns to lead North Texas’ secondary, while Jalen McCain and LaMareon Johnson are two fresh faces that may be thrown into the fire from the word go this season. As a team, North Texas averaged 34.4 PPG while allowing 42.8 PPG last season.

The over is 4-1 in Northwestern State’s last 5 games, 4-1 in their last 5 games played in September and 7-1 in their last 8 Saturday games. North Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games while the over is 5-2 in their last 7 games overall.

This feels a bit odd, but I’m going to roll with Northwestern State and the points. Maybe I’m wrong here, but the Mean Green were brutal last season and didn’t look far off from the levels of an FCS team at times against their opposition. Northwestern State played in a ton of close games last season and bring back a lot of talent from last year’s team that battled hard. I think North Texas could be in for a scrap here, so give me the Demons and the points.