Alabama vs New Mexico State 11/13/21 College Football Picks, Odds, Best Bets

The Alabama Crimson Tide meet the New Mexico State Aggies Saturday in week 11 college football action from Bryant-Denny Stadium.

The New Mexico State Aggies will be looking to rebound from a 35-13 loss at the hands of Utah State in their last game. Jonah Johnson has thrown for 1,975 yards, 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 57.5% passing while Juwaun Price has a team-high 487 rushing yards and 6 scores. Jared Wyatt leads New Mexico State’s receiving group with 41 grabs for 480 yards while Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda is right behind with 478 receiving yards and 5 scores this season. Three more Aggies have at least 200 receiving yards and another three have 100+ receiving yards this season. On defense, Caleb Mills has 51 total tackles and a pair of interceptions while Chris Ojoh has 5 sacks and D.J. McCullough has 3 interceptions on the year.

The Alabama Crimson Tide enter this game looking to shake off a narrow 20-14 win over LSU in their last game. Bryce Young leads the Crimson Tide with 2,755 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 69.4% passing while Brian Robinson Jr. leads the Crimson Tide’s ground attack with 724 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. Jameson Williams leads Alabama in receiving with 870 receiving yards and 7 TDs while John Metchie III has 674 receiving yards on a team-high 61 grabs with 6 TDs. Two more receivers for Bama have at least 200 receiving yards and another four have 100+ receiving yards this season. On defense, Henry To’o To’o leads the way with 68 total tackles while Will Anderson Jr. has 65 total tackles and a team-high 10 sacks. Phidarian Mathis also has 5.5 sacks and Jalyn Armour-Davis has 3 interceptions for Alabama this season.

New Mexico State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall while the over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Alabama is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a losing record while the over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games following a win.

I get why Alabama is favored here, but seven touchdowns seems like a lot doesn’t it? New Mexico was getting 54.5 points the only other time these two teams met a couple of years ago, and the Aggies covered and Alabama couldn’t cover another 50-point spread against Mercer earlier this season. Don’t get me wrong, I think this is a blowout. But I think you see the backups come in quite early and the scoring pace slows down, and if the Aggies somehow score 7 or even 14 points, you’re now asking Bama to score 60-70 for a cover. Could it happen? Maybe, but I think the wiser play here is to take the points. Alabama has Arkansas and Auburn on deck so they probably aren’t taking this game seriously and have bigger fish to fry later down the road.