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MLB Prop Bets: Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves – September 4, 2022

MLB Prop Bets: Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves - September 4, 2022
2022-09-04 13:35:00 EDT

The Miami Marlins (55-77) face the Atlanta Braves (83-51) at Truist Park on Sunday at 1:35pm (ET). Let’s take a look at the MLB Prop Bets for the matchup. Pablo Lopez is the probable pitcher for the Marlins, while Max Fried is the probable pitcher for the Braves. The Braves are favored to win at -256, while the Marlins are at +215. The total runs line is set at 7.0, with OVER at -115 and UNDER at -106.

  • The Marlins (-106) have a 60-72 Run Line record this season, while the Braves (-115) hold a record of 68-66.
  • The Marlins have a 56-70-6 O/U record this season (meaning 56 games have gone over the total runs line, 70 have gone under and six have resulted in a push). The Braves have a 67-60-7 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

  • The Marlins are averaging 3.6 runs per game this season (27th in the league). Comparatively, the Braves are averaging +1.4 more at 4.9 runs (3rd).
  • In the field, the Marlins are allowing 4.2 runs per game this season (14th in the league), while the Braves are allowing an average of 3.8 runs (7th).

Let’s take a look at how these teams perform in some other key statistical areas.

Batting Insights:

Batting Average

  • Looking at their batting averages this season, the Marlins are at .228 (ranking 27th in the Major leagues), while the Braves are batting .253 (9th).

Home Runs

  • In terms of total home runs this season, the Braves are one of the best in the Major Leagues, hitting 202 to rank 2nd. Alternatively, the Marlins are at the opposite end of the home run standings, hitting just 116 (T25th).

Runs Batted In

  • Finally, looking at their runs batted in, the Braves have been outstanding this season, recording 629 RBIs to rank 3rd in the MLB. Comparatively, the Marlins have performed poorly in this area, recording only 445 RBIs to rank 27th.

Pitching Insights:

Earned Run Average

  • The Braves have an earned run average of 3.46 this season (5th in the Majors), while The Marlins have an ERA of 3.86 (14th).

Strikeouts

  • Turning our attention to total strikeouts, the Marlins have recorded 1150 this season, ranking 10th in the MLB. Meanwhile, the Braves rank 1st for total strikeouts, recording 1281.

Opponent Batting Average

  • Opponents are batting an average of .228 against the Braves this season (4th in the Major Leagues). Comparatively, the Marlins’ opponents are at .242 (13th).

First Innings Moneyline

  • Here are their first innings moneyline records in 2022.
  • Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
    Marlins 14-34-84 9-16-39 5-18-45 6-10-37 8-24-47 0-0-0 1-1-8
    Braves 30-22-82 16-8-47 14-14-35 27-14-65 3-8-17 0-0-0 1-0-9

Lead After Three Innings

  • Here are their records after the first three innings in 2022.
  • Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
    Marlins 39-53-40 19-26-19 20-27-21 17-18-18 22-35-22 0-0-0 1-4-5
    Braves 56-39-39 34-16-21 22-23-18 50-24-32 6-15-7 0-0-0 3-3-4

NRFI/YRFI

  • The NRFI is 80-52 in Marlins games this season. The Braves have a 79-55 NRFI record.

Last Time They Met

The Braves recorded an upset 2-1 victory over the Marlins at Truist Park yesterday. Austin Riley went yard en route to that victory, hitting a home run to go with an RBI. The Braves have now won seven straight against the Marlins.


Robert Steele

I'm not a fan of being called a "quants" (quantitative analyst) or "math wizard" but it's the truth. I'm a numbers guy. I love to crunch the data, make sense of it, and turn it into a winning bet.

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