Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Pegula Pick – Tennis Predictions & Odds 4/30/23

Jessica Pegula and Marie Bouzkova meet in the third round of the 2023 tennis Madrid Open. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

Jessica Pegula is coming off a straight set win over Magdalena Frech that took 22 games to decide. In the victory, Pegula won 71 percent of her first serve points and 52 percent of her second serve points. Pegula won 63 percent of her total service points and converted on 3 of her 7 break points. Pegula got 58 percent of her first serves in play and hit 8 aces. Pegula has seen 8 of her last 10 wins be decided in straight sets. Pegula looks to make the fourth round of Madrid in back to back years. Pegula has won 8 of her last 10 matches on clay court.

Marie Bouzkova is coming off a 3 sets win over Aliaksandra Sasnovich that took 32 games to decide. In the victory, Bouzkova won 68 percent of her first serve points and 56 percent of her second serve points. Bouzkova won 65 percent of her total service points and converted on 5 of her 15 break points. Bouzkova got 75 percent of her first serves in play and hit 7 aces. The match took well over two and a half hours to complete, and Bouzkova has now split her last 8 matches that have gone the distance. Bouzkova has 6 career wins over top-10 players. Bouzkova has won 6 of her last 9 matches on clay court.

Bouzkova has won 2 of the 3 meetings against Pegula, including the most recent match last year in Indian Wells. Pegula’s lone win was the 2020 US Open. This will be the first match on clay.

Bouzkova will have the mental edge, knowing she’s won 2 of the 3 meetings. However, Pegula is easily a better player than she was even a year ago, and she’s more confident as well. Bouzkova had to work hard in her last effort, and that could be an issue here as well. 

I have to side with Pegula to reach the fourth round.