Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green fight Saturday in UFC 291 at Delta Center. Ferguson enters this fight with a 25-8 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by knockout. Green enters this fight with a 29-14-1 record and has won 38 percent of his fights by decision.

Ferguson Betting Preview

Ferguson has lost 5 straight fights and is coming off a September loss to Nate Diaz. Ferguson is averaging 5.07 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Ferguson is averaging 0.44 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Ferguson is coming off a submission loss at UFC 279 where he landed 80 total strikes and ate 101 total strikes. It was the second time Ferguson has been submitted in his career, and he’s been finished 3 times in this 5-fight losing streak. Ferguson hasn’t won a fight since UFC 238 more than 4 years ago. When in good form, Ferguson is a vicious striker who usually leaves his opponent in a bloody mess, and he’s a black belt in BJJ that’s helped him produce 8 submission victories. The resume is undeniable, but given his current form and the fact he’s now 39 years old, it’s fair to say Ferguson is a shell of himself. This will be Ferguson’s first career fight in Utah.

Green Betting Preview

Green has split his last 10 fights and is coming off an April no contest against Jared Gordon. Green is averaging 5.97 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Green is averaging 1.28 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Green is coming off a no contest at UFC Fight Night 222 where he clashed heads and knocked his opponent unconscious. In the effort, Green landed 23 total strikes and ate 17 total strikes. Green hasn’t won a bout since UFC 271 about a year and a half ago. Green comes from a wrestling and boxing background, and he has a purple belt in BJJ. He seems more polished as a striker, as he’s heavy-handed, has good ground and pound and closes the distance well. Green also has 8 career submission victories, as he has decent scrambling skills, and 3 of those victories have come by guillotine choke. This will be Green’s first career fight in Utah.

H2H History 

There’s no fight history between these 2 fighters.

Randy’s Free Pick

I really want to take a shot with Ferguson and the massive plus money, even if it’s just hoping he can get a feel good win before rides off into the sunset. The problem is Ferguson has looked awful in much of his recent fights, and he’s been in so many wars over the years, he’s probably washed up if we’re being honest. Green will have to deal with size and length, but he’s the younger, more athletic fighter, and he has more pop at this stage. Green also has above average takedown defense, which should force Ferguson to fight his fight.

Give me Green to win inside distance to shave the price. I just can’t get behind Ferguson.