The USF Bulls and the Navy Midshipmen meet in week 5 college football action from Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

USF Takes Out Rice

The USF Bulls got back to .500, sitting at 2-2 on the year after a 42-29 win over Rice last time out. Byrum Brown has thrown for 885 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 56.8% passing while also leading USF in rushing with 357 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. Nay’Quan Wright has 242 rushing yards while Naiem Simmons leads USF in receiving with 357 receiving yards and 2 TDs and Sean Atkins has a team-high 24 grabs for 215 yards this season. On defense, Jhalyn Shuler has a team-high 27 total tackles while Daquan Evans leads USF with 3 sacks and Logan Berryhill has a pair of interceptions. As a team, USF has 13 sacks and 3 interceptions as a unit this season.

South Florida Bulls Team Facts

South Florida has lost each of its last 19 road games.
South Florida has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
South Florida has won the first quarter in three of its last four road games against conference opponents.
South Florida has lost the first half in six of its last seven games against conference opponents.
Each of South Florida’s last four September games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Navy Falls Short Against Memphis

The Navy Midshipmen are coming off of a bye week and have had time to stew on a 28-24 loss to Memphis that sits the Middies at 1-2 so far this season. Tai Lavatai has thrown for 337 yards and 2 touchdowns on 55.3% passing while Alex Tecza has a team-high 209 rushing yards and Daba Fofana has 143 rushing yards this season. Brandon Chatman leads Navy’s receiving group with 5 grabs for 100 yards this season. On defense, Will Harbour leads the Middies with 20 total tackles while Rayuan Lane has a pair of interceptions.

Navy Midshipmen Team Facts

Navy has lost eight of its last nine matches when playing with a rest advantage.
Navy has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six September home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Navy has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
Each of Navy’s last five home games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Navy ranked 21st among FBS teams for Q2 points allowed per game last season (5.3).
Navy ranked 30th among FBS teams for Q4 points allowed per game last season (5.4).
South Florida was one of only two FBS teams to lose 5+ games when leading after Q1 last season.
South Florida was one of only six FBS teams to lose 4+ games when leading after Q1 last season.

Chris’ Pick

I’m leaning towards USF here. I’m not loving this game, but I’m just having a hard time laying points with the Middies. USF looked really good against Rice last week, and the one area where USF can be exploited is through the air but Navy’s offense, being primarily an option attack, obviously isn’t built to exploit that weakness even with a change in philosophy like what Navy’s undertaken so far this season. I think at absolute worst, Navy wins this one by a field goal, so I’ll take a shot with USF and the points.