Oregon vs Boise State Prediction 9-7-24 College Football Picks

The Boise State Broncos and the Oregon Ducks meet on Saturday in college football action from Autzen Stadium. Here’s an Oregon vs Boise State prediction. We will be looking at this from a betting perspective and determining the best Oregon vs Boise State pick.

Boise State Broncos Betting Preview

Boise State managed to bag an 8-6 overall record last season and did pretty well in the Mountain West with a 6-2 run. The Broncos finished behind only UNLV in the standings and beat the Rebels 44-20 in the championship game. Boise State fell 35-22 in the LA Bowl to UNLV, though.

In their first action of the 2024 season, the Broncos took on the Georgia Southern Eagles. In that matchup, Boise State powered out a 56-45 win. QB Maddux Madsen logged 280 yards with a TD and a pick, while Ashton Jeanty had a career day on 267 yards and six scores off 20 carries.

Oregon Ducks Betting Preview

Over on the Oregon side, they posted a nice 12-2 run a season ago. Oregon was behind only Washington (9-0) in the standings with an 8-1 conference run and lost the championship game 34-31. Oregon finished off with a 45-6 Fiesta Bowl blowout over Liberty, though.

The Ducks played the Idaho Vandals back on Saturday. Oregon would end up winning by a relatively tame 24-14 margin. Dillon Gabriel had two passing scores among his 380 yards on a 41-of-49 success rate. Tez Johnson caught 12 of those passes for 81 yards and two TDs.

Why the Oregon Ducks will win

• Oregon has won each of its last 35 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Autzen Stadium.
• Boise State has lost each of its last six September games as an underdog.
• Boise State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six road games in September.
• The favorite has covered the spread in seven of Boise State’s last eight games.
• Oregon has won the first quarter in each of its last 11 games against non-conference opponents at Autzen Stadium.
• Oregon has won the first half in each of its last 19 games against non-conference opponents at Autzen Stadium.

Why the Boise State Broncos will win

• Boise State has won four of its last six games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.
• Boise State has covered the spread in six of its last eight games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.
• Oregon has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Boise State has won the first half in each of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
• Boise State has won the first quarter in each of its last four road games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Boise State’s last eight games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Oregon’s last four games as a favorite has gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Oregon ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• Oregon ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• Boise State ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• Boise State ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage this season (1.000).

Oregon vs Boise State Prediction

I’ll lean toward Oregon here, but you could make a case either way. The Ducks weren’t quite as explosive on the scoreboard as most people thought they’d be, but they still managed the 10-point win in their first game. Oregon posted 487 total yards (380 passing) and 31 first downs while notching a great defensive effort.

As for Boise State, they went wild with 651 yards (371 rushing) and 9.9 yards per play. That said, the Broncos also gave up 461 yards (322 passing) on the other side along with a 12-of-19 rate on third downs. If Oregon can stop the run I think they’ll be able to cover, but it’ll be an interesting matchup.