Liberty Flames (1-0) vs. New Mexico State Aggies (1-0)
September 7, 2024 10:15 pm EDT
The Line: New Mexico State Aggies +20.5 / Liberty Flames -20.5; Over/Under: +55.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Liberty Flames and the New Mexico State Aggies meet on Saturday in college football action from Aggie Memorial Stadium. Here’s a New Mexico State vs Liberty prediction. We will be looking at this from a betting perspective and determining the best New Mexico State vs Liberty pick.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview
The Flames are coming off a (mostly) successful season in 2023. Liberty went 13-1 overall and a perfect 8-0 in C-USA games. The Flames finished in first place in the standings and beat New Mexico State in the conference championship 49-35. Liberty was drilled by Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl 45-6, however.
The Flames played Campbell in their first matchup of the 2024 campaign. In that one Liberty scored in every quarter (and also gave up points in every quarter) during a 41-24 win. Quarterback Kaidon Salter had 242 yards and a pair of TDs, while Quinton Cooley led the rush with 110 yards and a score off 16 carries.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview
Over on the Aggies’ side, they went 10-5 overall last year and 7-1 in conference play for a second-place finish in the standings. Following their championship game loss, New Mexico State finished with a loss to Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl 37-10.
Matched up against Southeast Missouri State back on Saturday, the Aggies were down by three points leading into the final quarter but came out on top 23-16. Parker Awad threw for just 37 yards and a pick. Seth McGowan did most of the offensive work on 87 yards rushing and two TDs. New Mexico State will face Fresno State and Sam Houston following this one.
Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win
- New Mexico State has won each of its last four games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- New Mexico State has covered the spread in each of its last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Liberty has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
- New Mexico State has won the first half in eight of its last 10 home games against conference opponents.
Why the Liberty Flames will win
- Liberty has won each of its last 14 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- New Mexico State has lost 16 of its last 17 September games as an underdog.
- Liberty has covered the spread in six of its last seven games in September.
- New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games.
- Liberty has won the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of New Mexico State’s last nine games as a home underdog has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of Liberty’s last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- New Mexico State ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q2 win percentage this season (1.000).
- New Mexico State ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q4 win percentage this season (1.000).
- Liberty ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage this season (1.000).
- Liberty ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q2 win percentage this season (1.000).
New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction
I’ll go with New Mexico State here. You could certainly make a great case for Liberty, though. Granted, the Flames didn’t face a particularly tough team in Campbell during their opener, but they (mostly) got the job done. Liberty had 533 total yards (279 rushing) with 28 first downs and a 9-of-14 rate on third-down tries. The 11 penalties were a glaring black eye on an otherwise pretty good outing, though.
As for New Mexico State, they won a weird game against SEMO with just 60 passing yards and 3.8 yards per play. The Aggies did post a solid 10-of-19 rate on third downs and kept the RedHawks to just 5-of-16 on the other side. This second game should be a pretty interesting matchup, and if the Aggies play well I think they’ll cover what seems to be a generous line.
