Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction 9-23-24 NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction for this NFL game on Monday, September 23rd at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 3 matchup.

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills are 2-0 this year after they defeated Miami by a score of 31-10 last week. Buffalo was tied at seven in the first quarter, but they scored the next 17 points to pull away for the easy win. The Bills were outgained by a total of 351-247, forced three turnovers, and went 3-9 on third down in the game. Josh Allen threw for 139 yards and one touchdown, while James Cook rushed for 78 yards and two scores on 11 carries. 

Buffalo defeated Arizona by a score of 34-28 in week one. The Buffalo offense has scored 32.5 points per game with 180.5 passing yards and 119 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 19 points per game this season. The Bills have gone 33.3% on third down and 3-3 on fourth down through two games. Josh Allen has completed 73.8% of his passes for 371 yards and three touchdowns, while James Cook has rushed for 149 yards and two scores. 

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-2 this season after they lost to Cleveland by a score of 18-13 last week. Jacksonville cut the deficit to 16-13 in the fourth quarter by scoring 10 straight points, but couldn’t find any more offense in the loss. The Jaguars outgained Cleveland by a total of 323-297, didn’t turn the ball over, and went 3-9 on third down in the game. Trevor Lawrence threw for 220 yards, while Travis Etienne Jr. rushed for 52 yards and one score on 13 carries. 

Jacksonville lost to Miami by a score of 20-17 in their first game. The Jags’ offense has scored 15 points per game with 167.5 passing yards and 127.5 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 19 points per game this season. The Jaguars have gone 26.3% on third down and 0-1 on fourth down through two games. Trevor Lawrence has completed 51% of his passes for 382 yards and one touchdown, while Brian Thomas Jr. has caught six passes for 141 yards and one score. 

Why the Jaguars will cover against the Bills

• The underdogs have won six of the Jaguars’ last seven Week 3 games.
• The Bills have lost four of their last five games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last seven September games as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
• The underdogs have won the first half in each of the Jaguars’ last five Week 3 games.
• The underdogs have won the first quarter in four of the Jaguars’ last five games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Jaguars’ last five games played on the East Coast have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Bills’ last four home games in September has gone OVER the total points line.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• Josh Allen has scored two touchdowns in three of the Bills’ last four regular season games as favorites.
• Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in 10 of the Bills’ last 11 games as favorites following a win.
• Josh Allen has recorded 248+ passing yards in eight of the Bills’ last nine games against AFC South opponents.
• James Cook has recorded 61+ rushing yards in eight of the Bills’ last nine games as home favorites.
• Dawson Knox has recorded 15+ receiving yards in each of his last six regular-season appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Curtis Samuel has recorded 28+ rushing and receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 home appearances against AFC opponents.
• Josh Allen has thrown two or more touchdowns in seven of the Bills’ last eight regular season games against AFC South opponents.
• Josh Allen has recorded 23+ completions in eight of the Bills’ last nine September games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• Ja’Marcus Ingram ranks T1st in the NFL in interceptions (2) this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts

• Travis Etienne has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Jaguars’ last three games played on the East Coast.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 257+ passing yards in four of the Jaguars’ last five games as underdogs following a loss.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 21+ rushing yards in three of the Jaguars’ last four games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• Christian Kirk has recorded 70+ receiving yards in five of his last six September appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Christian Kirk has recorded 70+ rushing and receiving yards in six of his last seven appearances with the Jaguars as underdogs.
• Trevor Lawrence has thrown three touchdowns in three of the Jaguars’ last five games as underdogs following a loss.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 25+ completions in five of the Jaguars’ last six games as underdogs following a loss.
• Darnell Savage Jr. is just one away from 10 career interceptions.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Bills rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (100.0%) this season.
• The Bills rank T1st in the NFL in Q3 points per game (10.5) this season.
• The Jaguars rank 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (245.5) this season.
• The Jaguars rank 29th in the NFL in average kickoff return (18.7 yards) this season.

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction 

Buffalo is coming off of a very easy win against the Dolphins last Thursday night, so they also have the rest advantage coming into this game. The Bills were able to force Tua into plenty of bad decisions in that game, so it will be crucial for Lawrence to protect the football. Buffalo struggled in their first game against Arizona and the Dolphins still put up over 350 yards last week, so I think the Jaguars offense could have a decent day.

Buffalo’s offense didn’t have to do much in their last game, but they will have to improve against this Jacksonville defense that has been pretty good. I think the Jaguars’ defense will continue to play well, while Lawrence and Company find success through the air. Give me Jacksonville and the points here.