Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 9-20-24 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 20th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 74-80 this year and they have lost three of their last four games. Cincinnati is coming off of a series loss against Atlanta, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Reds won two out of three against the Twins, lost two out of three against the Cardinals, and won a makeup game with the Braves. Cincinnati is 6-5 in their last 11 games and they are fourth in the NL Central. 

The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.16 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average. The Reds’ offense has scored 678 runs with a .233 batting average and a .307 on-base percentage. Elly De La Cruz is batting .260 with 24 home runs and 70 RBI’s for the Reds this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 72-81 this season and they have lost five of their last seven games. Pittsburgh is coming off of a series loss against St. Louis, where they lost three out of four games. Prior to that series, the Pirates lost two out of three against the Royals, swept the Marlins, and split four games with the Nationals. Pittsburgh is 6-5 in their last 11 games and they are last in the NL Central. 

The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .251 opponent batting average. The Pirates’ offense has scored 636 runs with a .236 batting average and a .302 on-base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .280 with 22 home runs and 85 RBI’s for the Pirates this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who is 11-10 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 169.2 innings pitched this year. Keller has allowed three earned runs in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Martinez, who is 9-6 with a 3.37 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 128.1 innings pitched this season. Martinez has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts. 

Why the Reds will beat the Pirates

• The Pirates have lost five of their last six road games following a win.
• The home team has won four of the Pirates’ last five games.
• The Reds have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last four games against NL Central opponents has gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Pirates’ last seven games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last six games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last five night games.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• TJ Friedl has hit a home run in each of his last four home appearances against the Pirates.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five appearances with the Reds as favorites against the Pirates.
• Tyler Stephenson has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one Single in each of the Reds’ last seven night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Tyler Stephenson has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 13 appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jonathan India has recorded at least one Double in each of the Reds’ last four home games against the Pirates.
• Tyler Stephenson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances against opponents that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Andrew McCutchen has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 Friday night appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Yasmani Grandal has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Reds.
• Mitch Keller has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against the Reds.
• Yasmani Grandal has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against the Reds.
• Andrew McCutchen has scored a run in each of the Pirates’ last four games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Single in seven of the Pirates’ last eight road games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 Friday night appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Mitch Keller has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances with the Pirates as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cincinnati Reds rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (202).
• The Cincinnati Reds rank 26th in the league for hits this season (1184).
• The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 27th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.371).
• The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 26th in the league for home runs this season (147).

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this series playing decent baseball over the last two weeks, but the Reds will have the home-field advantage. Cincinnati is 37-41 at home this season, while Pittsburgh is 34-41 on the road. The Pirates were able to avoid being swept with their win on Thursday and they will start Mitch Keller, who hasn’t been great recently, but he also hasn’t been that bad. The Reds will start Nick Martinez, who has been lights out in his last three starts and faces a Pittsburgh lineup that is 22nd in runs scored. Take Cincinnati at home.