Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0) vs. USC Trojans (3-2)
October 12, 2024 3:30 pm EDT
The Line: USC Trojans +4.5 / Penn State Nittany Lions -4.5; Over/Under: +53.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Penn State Nittany Lions and the USC Trojans meet Saturday in college football action from LA Memorial Coliseum. Here’s a USC vs Penn State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best USC vs Penn State pick.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview
The Nittany Lions got off to a nice start this year despite a couple of close finishes. Penn State beat West Virginia 34-12 in their opener, then took out Bowling Green 34-27. Game three was a 56-0 blowout over Kent State, then came a 21-7 escape versus Illinois.
In the UCLA game, the Lions posted 24 combined points across the second and third quarters in a 27-11 win. QB Drew Allar threw for 237 yards and a TD. Kaytron Allen led the rush with 78 yards and a rushing score on 21 carries. Liam Clifford caught three balls for 107 yards to top the receivers.
USC Trojans Betting Preview
Over on the USC side, they took wins in their first pair of games this season over LSU 27-20 and Utah State 48-0. The Trojans would lose their first game to Michigan 27-24 but bounced back with a 38-21 victory over Wisconsin the next weekend.
Matched up against Minnesota the Trojans gave up 14 unanswered points in the final quarter and lost 24-17. Miller Moss had 200 passing yards, one TD, and two interceptions. Jo’quavious Marks led the rush with 134 yards and a TD on 20 carries.
Why the USC Trojans will win
- Penn State has lost each of its last five road games in October.
- The underdog has won five of USC’s last seven games.
- The home team has covered the spread in each of USC’s last four games.
- Penn State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five road games in October.
Why the Penn State Nittany Lions will win
- Penn State has won each of its last 25 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- USC has lost each of its last eight October games as an underdog.
- USC has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games in October.
- Penn State has covered the spread in 15 of its last 18 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- USC has lost the first half in six of its last seven games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of USC’s last five games against top-15 AP-ranked teams at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Penn State’s last five games against conference opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- USC ranks T13th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (2.6).
- USC ranks 14th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (158.4).
- Penn State ranks 1st among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
- Penn State ranks 4th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (3.4).
USC vs Penn State Prediction
I may try Penn State here. The Lions posted a pretty decent win over UCLA in their latest outing, notching 322 total yards (237 passing), 6.0 yards per play, and 7-of-12 on third-down tries. The defense didn’t have any takeaways but did a nice job overall on 260 yards (167 passing) and 14 first downs allowed. Penn State has surrendered 11 or fewer points in three straight games, and 18 combined across that trio.
As for USC, last weekend they had some tough times against Minnesota in the second half, ultimately posting three turnovers and eight penalties for 59 yards. Outside of a handful of mistakes, however, USC didn’t play terribly. That said, the Trojans will need a big lift to get past a surging Penn State team this weekend. Should be a great matchup in any case.
