San Diego State vs New Mexico Prediction 11-8-24 College Football Picks

The New Mexico Lobos and the San Diego State Aztecs will meet Friday in college football action from Snapdragon Stadium. Here’s a San Diego State vs New Mexico prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best San Diego State vs New Mexico pick.

New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview

The Lobos hit the skids out of the gate this year, losing to Montana State, Arizona, Auburn and Fresno State in their first quartet. New Mexico rebounded with wins over New Mexico State, Air Force and Utah State before another loss to Colorado State.

Matched up against Wyoming, the Lobos were up 45-35 going into the fourth quarter but eventually lost a tough one 49-45 after giving up a couple of unanswered TDs. Devon Dampier threw for 164 yards, one TD and a pick while also leading the rush on 207 yards and three scores.

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview

Over on the San Diego State side, they beat Texas A&M-Commerce before losses to Oregon State, California and Central Michigan in their first four. The Aztecs beat Hawaii and Wyoming before another loss to Washington State on October 26.

Last Friday versus Boise State, the Aztecs had their proverbial hands full. San Diego State was drilled 35-10 in the first half and eventually limped to a 56-24 blowout loss. QB Danny O’Neil put up 155 yards, two scores and two picks. Tops in rushing was Marquez Cooper with 94 yards and a TD on 16 totes.

Why the San Diego State Aztecs will win

• New Mexico has lost 28 of its last 29 games in November.
• The favorite has won nine of New Mexico’s last 10 games.
• New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine November road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• San Diego State has covered the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• New Mexico has lost the first half in each of its last eight road games against conference opponents.

Why the New Mexico Lobos will win

• San Diego State has lost five of its last six games in November.
• San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Each of San Diego State’s last six November games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of New Mexico’s last eight November games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• San Diego State ranks 129th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (25:57).
• San Diego State ranks 128th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (96.2).
• New Mexico ranks 133rd among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (13.6).
• New Mexico ranks 133rd among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (20.1).

San Diego State vs New Mexico State Prediction

I’ll lean toward San Diego State. The Aztecs need a good bounce-back game here after a rough loss to a good Boise State team, though. In that matchup SDSU posted a tepid 256 yards (155 passing), 4.6 yards per play, 12 first downs and 2-of-14 on third-down tries. On the other side the Aztecs gave up 541 yards (322 passing) and a whopping 34 first downs as they couldn’t get off the field. New Mexico should be much closer to San Diego State’s wheelhouse, though.

Speaking of the Lobos, in their weekend matchup they lost a tough one with a late breakdown. New Mexico had a couple of turnovers, seven penalties and just 164 pass yards. The good news is that the running game was great on 412 yards; the bad news is that the Lobos gave up 605 yards total (262 rushing) on the other side.