California Golden Bears (6-6) vs. UNLV Rebels (10-2)
December 18, 2024 9:00 pm EDT
The Line: UNLV Rebels +1.5 / California Golden Bears -1.5; Over/Under: +51.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The California Golden Bears and the UNLV Rebels will meet Wednesday in LA Bowl college football action from SoFi Stadium. Here is a UNLV vs California prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best UNLV vs California pick.
California Golden Bears Betting Preview
The Golden Bears managed a shaky 6-6 record overall this year. California won their first three games before a losing streak versus Florida State, Miami, Pittsburgh and NC State. The Bears closed on a 3-2 run featuring wins over Oregon State, Wake Forest and Stanford.
In their last outing November 30 versus SMU, California took a blowout loss. The Bears were down 21-0 by halftime and eventually finished with a 38-6 result. QB Chandler Rogers threw for 84 yards, while Jaydn Ott led the rush with 37 yards. Nyziah Hunter topped the receivers on five grabs for 85 yards.
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview
Over on the Rebels’ side, they only lost two of their first eight games, falling to Syracuse and Boise State—each by one score. After wins versus Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State and Nevada, UNLV took a loss to Boise State in the Mountain West Championship.
Matched up against the Broncos on December 6, the Rebels were outscored 21-0 in the first three quarters. UNLV posted a cosmetic TD from there in a 21-7 loss. Hajj-Malik Williams finished with 110 yards and an interception. Kylin James led the rush with two carries for 95 yards.
Why the UNLV Rebels will win
- California has lost each of its last 12 games against AP-ranked teams.
- UNLV has won each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- UNLV has covered the spread in 13 of its last 15 games against non-conference opponents.
- California has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games.
Why the California Golden Bears will win
- California has won each of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
- California has covered the spread in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.
- UNLV has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games in December.
- California has won the first half in 20 of its last 22 games against non-conference opponents.
- California has won the first quarter in five of its last six games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference.
Total Points Facts
- Six of California’s last seven games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of UNLV’s last three games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- UNLV ranks T4th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (17).
- UNLV ranks 5th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (251.2).
- California ranks 3rd among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (2.1).
- California ranks T4th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (17).
UNLV vs California Prediction
I’m staying with UNLV. The Rebels couldn’t find much success on offense during their loss to Boise State, notching 13 first downs 327 total yards and a rough 5-of-16 rate on third-down conversions. It was UNLV’s lowest total of the year, down from a previous basement of 23 points back in September in a win over Kansas. Even with that dud, the Rebels are averaging 36.2 points per game thanks mostly to their strong ground attack (251.2 rush yards per game).
As for California, they were flummoxed by a great SMU team in their last outing, collecting just 254 total yards and 14 first downs. The Bears have been below 26 points in three straight games now, and five of the last seven overall. Cal averages 26.3 points per game, with most of their output hinging on 266.3 pass yards per game. The good news is that the Bears are a balanced squad, with 16 TDs each on the ground and through the air.
All of that said, if UNLV can get their run game established early and keep the chains moving, it’ll be a long day on the sidelines for the Golden Bears offense. If all goes well, I like the Rebels to control the pace in this one from wire to wire.
