Nationals vs Mets Prediction 4/25/25 MLB Picks Today

The New York Mets and the Washington Nationals meet Friday in MLB action from Nationals Park. This will be the first installment in a four-game weekend series. Here’s a Nationals vs Mets prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Nationals vs Mets pick.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The Mets opened their 2025 campaign with a series loss versus the Houston Astros, but then took two of three versus the Miami Marlins. New York would then sweep the Toronto Blue Jays before another series win versus Miami. The Mets won another set versus the A’s then took a series loss versus the Twins ahead of a three-game sweep against the Cardinals. New York beat the Phillies 5-4 and 5-1 in their first two games this week. The Mets got two RBI from Luis Torrens and 5.0 innings with one earned from starter Griffin Canning in Tuesdays’ victory.

On Wednesday in the finale, New York scored twice in the bottom of the 10th to bag a walk-off comeback victory 4-3. Brett Baty posted two RBI with a homer, and Francisco Lindor added two hits with a run and a walk. Starter David Peterson had 5.1 innings with two earned on eight hits and a walk alongside two strikeouts.

Kodai Senga will take the starter role for the Mets on Friday. This year Senga is 3-1 with a 0.79 ERA in four starts over 22.2 innings. Senga is 16-8 with a 2.73 ERA in 34 career starts total.

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

Over on the Nationals’ side, they lost an opening series versus the Phillies then got swept by the Toronto Blue Jays before winning a set against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Washington won another series versus the Los Angeles Dodgers then fell in two of three versus the Miami Marlins. After losses in three of four versus the Pirates, Washington got a series win over the weekend versus the Rockies. On Tuesday Washington took out the Orioles 7-0, then in the Wednesday game the Nats eked out a 4-3 victory. Washington got home runs from James Wood (solo) and Josh Bell (two RBI) in that one.

On Thursday in the finale Washington couldn’t complete the sweep, falling 2-1 in a tough result. The Nationals gave up both runs in the fifth inning but only surrendered four hits on the night. Starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore gave up both runs with 6.0 innings, four hits, one walk and eight strikeouts. Washington’s lone RBI came from Josh Bell, and Amed Rosario plated the run. The Nationals’ bullpen went 3.0 clean frames with no hits, one walk and five strikeouts combined between two arms.

As starter for Friday the Nationals are sending out Jake Irvin. So far this year in five starts Irvin is 2-0 with a 3.68 ERA over 29.1 innings total. Irvin is 15-21 with a 4.42 ERA in 62 career games at the MLB level.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The home team has won each of the Mets’ last nine games.
• The Mets have lost each of their last four games as road favorites following a win.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last eight night games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as road favorites following a win.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in each of their last nine home games.
• The Nationals have won the first inning in each of their last five Friday home games.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games as home underdogs.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last eight night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have lost nine of their last 10 games against the Mets following a loss.
• The Mets have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites after going to extra innings.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games against the Mets following a loss.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last five games.
• The Mets have won the first inning in three of their last four games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Nationals’ last seven games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Mets’ last eight road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last seven games at Nationals Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the last 13 games between the Mets and Nationals.

Nationals vs Mets Prediction

I’m staying with the Mets. Senga is rolling along quite nicely these days. In his last three starts he’s got a smooth 3-0 record, giving up exactly zero earned runs over 17.2 innings total. Senga has surrendered 12 hits and six walks alongside 12 strikeouts (four in each outing) during that time. If he can keep this stellar run going, New York will be set up quite nicely on Friday.

The Mets used six different pitchers to power out their win over the Phillies on Wednesday. Following Peterson’s 5.1 frames, the bullpen gave up zero earned on three hits and three walks with five strikeouts the rest of the way. That makes seven straight wins and two consecutive series sweeps for New York right now—though three of those seven victories have come by just one run. That said, I like the Mets to keep it going Friday.