Nationals vs Mets Prediction 4/28/25 MLB Picks Today

The New York Mets and the Washington Nationals meet Monday in MLB action from Nationals Park. This will be the finale in a four-game weekend series. Here’s a Nationals vs Mets prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Nationals vs Mets pick.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The Mets kicked off their season with a series loss versus the Houston Astros, then came a series win versus the Miami Marlins. New York would sweep the Toronto Blue Jays next, then bag another set win versus Miami. The Mets would get a victory in a series against the A’s, then fall in a series versus the Twins, ahead of a sweep in three games over the Cardinals. The Mets posted another sweep over the Phillies in their last series, then fell 5-4 versus the Nationals in their Friday opener. On Saturday, New York scored both their runs in the second frame and held on for the shutout win in the end 2-0. Francisco Alvarez had a two-run homer, and Francisco Lindor had three hits. Starter Clay Holmes lasted 5.0 innings with four hits and no walks alongside two Ks.

In the Sunday game three, the Mets had a 6-0 lead in the top of the second inning. New York scored just once the rest of the way and allowed Washington to get back into it during an eventual loss, 8-7. Starting pitcher Tylor Megill left after 6.1 innings, three earned runs, three hits, one walk, and nine strikeouts.

Starter for the Monday finale will be New York’s Griffin Canning. This year, Canning is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA in five starts. Canning is 28-35 with a 4.70 ERA in 104 career games (99 starts) total.

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

Over on the Nationals’ side, they fell in their first set of the year against the Phillies and then got swept by the Toronto Blue Jays before winning a set over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Nationals then took a set win versus the Los Angeles Dodgers and lost two of three against the Miami Marlins after that. Following defeats in three of four against the Pirates, the Nationals would bag a victory in a set versus the Rockies. Washington beat Baltimore 7-0 and 4-3 in the first two games, then lost 2-1 on Thursday in the finale. Following their opener victory versus the Mets, on Saturday, the Nats posted seven team hits. Two each belonged to Luis Garcia and Dylan Crews. Brad Lord lasted 4.0 innings in the starting role with two earned runs on five hits.

In Sunday’s matchup, Washington scored five runs in the seventh inning during the wild comeback. Mitchell Parker gave up six earned runs on seven hits and five walks in 5.0 innings in the starting role.

Trevor Williams will take the mound for the Nationals on Monday. So far this season, Williams is 1-2 with a 5.11 ERA in five starts over 24.2 innings total. Williams is 51-57 with a 4.32 ERA in 207 career games (166 starts).

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The underdogs have won seven of the Nationals’ last eight games.
• The Mets have lost three of their last four games as road favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 10 of the Nationals’ last 11 games at Nationals Park.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in 10 of their last 12 home games.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games as home underdogs.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last nine games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Nationals have lost nine of their last 10 games against the Mets following a home win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six day games against the Mets at Nationals Park following a home win.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Nationals’ last 10 games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Mets’ last nine day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Mets’ last 10 games at Nationals Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Nationals’ last nine games against NL East opponents.

Nationals vs Mets Prediction

I’ll stick with the Mets. Canning is pitching pretty well right now, even though he gave up four earned runs on seven hits and three walks in 5.1 innings against the A’s on April 11 (and still got the win). In his two starts since then, Canning is 2-0 with 11.0 combined frames, two earned runs, 10 hits, and three walks. As for Williams, he’s doing well over his last two outings as well. Williams has 10.0 combined frames in that pair with two earned on nine hits and four walks, but has gone just 0-1 along the way.

New York went pretty quiet at the plate after the second inning in their Sunday defeat, and the bullpen was pretty shaky in relief of Megill. The Mets did have some solid offensive performances, though, and if they can keep the bats going, New York will have a shot in the finale.