Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction 5/1/25 MLB Picks Today

The Boston Red Sox are visiting the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday, May 1^st at the Rogers Centre in the third game of this series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction. We will examine:

The Toronto Blue Jays’ recent form and player performance

The Boston Red Sox’s recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Toronto Blue Jays

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Boston Red Sox

Recent betting trends in games played between the Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays game

Toronto Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays have a 14-16 record this season and are sitting in the 4^th place in the AL East. The Blue Jays have a 9-6 home record and are 12-18 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-6 home victory over the Red Sox, ending their previous three-game losing streak. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 games, and they are playing the Guardians and the Angels next. They have three consecutive losses, and over is 6-1-2 in their last 9 games. The Blue Jays have a .237 batting average this season, a .309 OBP, and a .347 slugging percentage. Toronto’s pitching staff has a 4.31 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  Bo Bichette leads the Jays with 38 hits, adding 13 RBI. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the team in RBI, with 14, while George Springer is the team’s best hitter with a .306 batting average.

Jose Berrios (R) will take the mound for the Blue Jays, and he has a 1-1 record, 4.24 ERA, and 1.41 WHIP. He has been significantly weaker at home with a 5.94 ERA, and he is coming off a shutout start against the Yankees with zero earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched. In his only start against the Red Sox last season, he gave up two earned runs in 7.2 innings pitched.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 17-15 record this season and are sitting in second place in the AL East. The Red Sox have a 9-9 road record and are 16-15 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-7 road defeat by the Blue Jays and are playing the Twins and the Rangers next. They are 3-1 in their last 4 games and 7-1 to the over in their last 8. The Red Sox have a .251 batting average this season, a .333 OBP, and a .423 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.  Alex Bergman leads the Jays with 41 hits, while also leading the team with a .328 batting average. He also adds a team-high 24 RBI and 7 home runs.

Tanner Houck (R) will take the mound for the Red Sox, and he has a 0-2 record, 7.58 ERA, and 1.69 WHIP. He has been abysmal on the road with an 11.65 ERA, but in his previous start against Toronto this season, he gave up only one run in 6.2 innings pitched.

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last six road games after going to extra innings.
• The Blue Jays have won each of their last six Thursday night games.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against American League opponents after going to extra innings.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in six of their last seven games against the Red Sox.
• The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Thursday night games.
• The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Thursday night games.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last seven home games against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The Red Sox have won four of their last five games against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 home games against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last four night games following a road loss.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in four of their last five night games at Rogers Centre.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight night games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last six night games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Blue Jays’ last four home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last seven home games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last six night games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (44).
• The Blue Jays rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (19).
• The Red Sox rank T1st in the league for doubles this season (63).
• The Red Sox rank 2nd in the league for walks this season (127).

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction

The Blue Jays are 4-2 in their 6 meetings against the Red Sox this season, and both teams are tied 1-1 in wins this season, with both games being high-scoring, with 12 and 13 total runs. Under was 7-1 in their 8 meetings before that stretch.

In this Red Sox vs  Blue Jays Prediction, both teams are coming at a pick ’em price (-110). The price is fair, as both pitchers have been struggling this season, and while the Red Sox have a better record and are in better form, they have been mediocre on the road. With both starting pitchers having a combined 11.82 ERA, and being significantly worse at home and on the road, I will go with the over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings, as both bullpens have been good this season.