Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction 5/5/25 NBA Picks Today

Denver Nuggets Betting Preview

The Denver Nuggets are coming into the second round with plenty of confidence after outlasting the Clippers in a thrilling seven-game series win in the first round. Nikola Jokic continued his stellar form into the playoffs with averages of 24.0 points, 11.6 rebounds and 10.1 assists per game. Jamal Murray woke up from a shooting slump to average 22.9 points and 5.9 assists per game, Aaron Gordon averaged 18.9 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, including a game winner, while Russell Westbrook averaged 13.8 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. As a team, the Nuggets scored 107.7 points per game while shooting 48.2 percent from the field and 38.9 percent from the 3-point line.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder must be brimming with confidence after making light work of the Grizzlies with a clean sweep in the first round. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continued his hot shooting as he averaged 27.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game. Jalen Williams averaged 23.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. Chet Holmgren averaged 18.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, but no other player is averaging more than 10 points per game during these playoffs. As a team, the Thunder have scored 120.0 points per game while shooting 45.7 percent from the field and 31.3 percent from the 3-point line.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won 23 of their last 24 games at Paycom Center when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Nuggets have lost five of their last six road games following a win.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last eight night games at Paycom Center.
• The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight night games following a home win.

Why the Denver Nuggets will win

• The Nuggets have won each of their last four games as road underdogs when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Thunder have lost four of their last five Western Conference Semifinals games as favorites following a win.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight night games against Northwest Division opponents that held a winning record.
• The Nuggets have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against the Thunder following a win.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (32.7) this season.
• Jalen Williams ranks 7th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.

Denver Nuggets Player Facts

• Nikola Jokic is the only qualified player in the league averaging at least 25.0 points, 10.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds this season.
• Christian Braun ranks 1st in the league for fast break points (403) this season.

Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction

The Nuggets are coming into this series with a full squad, while the Thunder are still playing without Ousmane Dieng. The Nuggets were able to turn it on late in the first round to sneak past the Clippers in a series decider, but they are going to have to take things to another level against this red-hot Thunder team. They have been resting since their last game on April 1. 26.

These teams met four times in the regular season, with the series tied at 2-2, but the momentum is definitely with the Thunder, who were 35-6 at home during the regular season. The Nuggets only had one day off to travel after beating the Clippers in Game 7 on Saturday. So even if they get off to a quick start, I like the Thunder to wear them down and force enough turnovers to win comfortably at home. Give me the Thunder to draw first blood with a win and cover in Game 1.