Marlins vs Rays Prediction 5/17/25 MLB Picks Today

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Miami Marlins meet Saturday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Marlins vs Rays Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Tampa Bay Rays will send out Drew Rasmussen for the start here, and Rasmussen is 1-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 35 strikeouts this season. In his career, Rasmussen is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 11 strikeouts against Miami. Sandy Alcantara will get the start for the Marlins here and is 2-5 with an 8.10 ERA and 31 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Rays, Alcantara is 2-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 32 strikeouts.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to bounce back from a 9-4 loss at the hands of the Marlins on Friday to fall to 20-24 on the year. After this series, the Rays will head home for a series against the Houston Astros.

Rays Alternate Wins & Losses In Six Straight

Jonathan Aranda has 41 hits with a team-high 9 doubles, 6 home runs, and 20 RBIs. Brandon Lowe has 33 hits with 7 homers and 24 RBIs as well, while Junior Caminero has 39 hits with 6 doubles, a team-high 8 home runs, and 20 RBIs. Yandy Diaz has 38 hits with 8 doubles, 6 homers, and 20 RBIs, and Kameron Misner has 30 hits with 7 doubles, 4 homers, and 13 RBIs as well, while Christopher Morel has a team-high 46 strikeouts this season. Jose Caballero has 10 stolen bases, while Taylor Walls has 6 stolen bases, and Chandler Simpson has 7 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last eight day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 games against the Rays following a home win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against the Rays following a home win.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Josh Lowe has hit at least one home run in five of his last 14 appearances with the Rays as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Danny Jansen has recorded at least one Double in each of his last four appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL East opponents.
• Josh Lowe has recorded an RBI in each of his last five appearances with the Rays as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• Brandon Lowe has scored at least one run in six of his last seven road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded seven strikeouts in three of his last four appearances with the Rays as favorites against NL East opponents.
• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances.
• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous appearances against the Marlins.
• Jonathan Aranda ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.404) this season.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins come into this one looking to build on their series-opening win over the Rays from Friday’s matchup to improve to 17-26 this season. After this series, the Marlins will square off against the Cubs to start the new week.

Marlins Win Back-To-Back Games

Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with 45 hits, including 3 doubles and a team-high 11 stolen bases, while Eric Wagaman has 31 hits with 8 doubles. Otto Lopez has 25 hits with 5 doubles and a pair of home runs with 11 RBIs, and Matt Mervis has 7 home runs and 14 RBIs so far this year. Kyle Stowers has 42 hits with 4 doubles, 2 triples, 10 home runs, and 29 RBIs, but also has 47 strikeouts, while Mervis has 43 K’s as well so far this season.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last five games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have lost five of their last six games as favorites.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last nine day games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last seven home games against AL East opponents.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with the Marlins as underdogs against the Rays.
• Jesus Sanchez has scored at least one run in four of the Marlins’ last five home games against AL East opponents.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last four appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Stowers ranks 10th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.562) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last nine home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Rays’ last 10 day games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.

Marlins vs Rays Prediction

I’m on the Rays here. I think both of these starters at their cores are better than their respective numbers so far this season, but I’m just not there with Sandy Alcantara. This is weird for me because I’ve been one of his biggest backers over the years, but this season it just looks like he doesn’t have it. You can excuse stumbles against teams like the Phillies and Dodgers, but to get crushed by the White Sox is hard to look past. The Rays are a better team across the board than what we saw in Friday’s opener, and behind a strong start from Rasmussen, I think they bounce back here. Give me the Rays.