Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction 5/22/25 MLB Picks Today

The Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox meet Thursday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Baltimore Orioles will send out Cade Povich for the start here and is 1-3 with a 5.23 ERA and 38 strikeouts this season. In his career, Povich is 0-2 with a 5.28 ERA and 19 strikeouts against the Red Sox. The Boston Red Sox will trot out Lucas Giolito for the start here, and Giolito is 1-1 with a 7.08 ERA and 17 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Orioles, Giolito is 3-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 25 strikeouts.

Baltimore Orioles Recap

The Baltimore Orioles come into this game looking to build some momentum after salvaging a win from their series against the Milwaukee Brewers to start the week by a final score of 8-4 to improve to 16-32 on the year. After this series, the Orioles will head home for an interleague series against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Orioles Snap Eight-Game Losing Streak

Cedric Mullins has 39 hits so far this season, as well as 9 doubles, 10 home runs, and 31 RBIs with 7 stolen bases and a .236 batting average, while Adley Rutschman has 35 hits with 7 doubles, 5 homers, and 14 RBIs. Ryan Mountcastle has 38 hits with 10 doubles, and Jackson Holliday has 41 hits with 4 doubles, 2 triples, 6 homers, and 19 RBIs. Ryan Mountcastle has 38 hits with 10 doubles, 2 homers, and 14 RBIs, and Gunnar Henderson has a team-high 51 strikeouts as well this season. Ryan O’Hearn also chipped in 41 hits with 6 doubles and 7 home runs with 16 RBIs, and Heston Kjerstad added 4 homers and 15 RBIs.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last nine Thursday night games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have won each of their last four games as road underdogs after going to extra innings.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Thursday night games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 11 of the Red Sox’s last 12 games.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Ramon Laureano has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances with the Orioles as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Gunnar Henderson has scored at least one run in each of the Orioles’ last four games against AL East opponents.
• Ryan O’Hearn has recorded at least one Single in nine of his last 10 appearances with the Orioles as road underdogs against AL opponents.
• Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one hit in each of the Orioles’ last 10 games against AL opponents.
• Jordan Westburg has hit a home run in each of his two previous appearances with the Orioles as road underdogs against the Red Sox.
• Dylan Carlson has recorded an RBI in each of his last three appearances with his team as an underdog against AL East opponents.
• Ryan O’Hearn ranks 9th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.396) this season.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to bounce back from their 5-1 loss at the hands of the New York Mets on Wednesday to fall to 25-26 this season. After this series, the Red Sox will head on the road for an interleague series against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Red Sox Fail To Complete Sweep Vs. Mets

Alex Bregman leads the Red Sox with 58 hits, including a team-high 17 doubles along with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs, while Rafael Devers has added 54 hits with 14 doubles, 10 home runs and 39 RBIs this season. Trevor Story added 43 hits with 6 home runs, 21 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases, while Jarren Duran has 57 hits with 11 doubles, 6 triples, 3 home runs, 29 RBIs, and a team-high 12 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell added 36 hits with 8 doubles, 5 homers, and 15 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 11 home runs with 27 RBIs and 4 stolen bases, and Ceddanne Rafaela has 2 homers, 2 triples, 18 RBIs, and 7 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Orioles have lost each of their last eight games following a road win.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last four night games against the Orioles following a loss.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances against AL East opponents.
• Alex Bregman has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last three night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Red Sox’s last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jarren Duran has scored at least one run in seven of his eight previous home appearances against the Orioles after playing the previous day.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Abraham Toro has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Orioles.
• Rafael Devers ranks 5th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.409) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Red Sox’s last nine home games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Orioles’ last eight night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction

I’m on the Red Sox in this one. I get the case to be made for an underdog in some spots, but I’m simply not getting enough plus money to take a shot on Baltimore here. Lucas Giolito is one of my least favorite options in Boston’s rotation, but the Orioles haven’t been able to cash in much against righties as of late, and I think they blow another opportunity here. Give me the Red Sox.