Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction 5/26/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Diamondbacks vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Monday, May 26, at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates (19-35, 6-19 Away) are going through their best period of the season after winning four of the previous six games. Following a series win over the Cincinnati Reds, the Pirates split with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Pirates were close to beating the Brewers in the latest game, as they had a 5-3 lead late on, but Milwaukee scored three runs in the 8th to secure a 6-5 victory. Adam Frazier led the offense with three RBI, while Bailey Falter pitched for 5.2 innings in a no-decision, allowing three runs (two earned) on four hits with one strikeout and three walks. Ryan Borucki took the loss.

This year, the Pirates average 3.04 runs per game (30th in the MLB) on a .224/.304/.331 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Pirates’ staff has a 4.00 ERA (16th) and 1.27 WHIP (17th). Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with a .212 batting average, six home runs, and 27 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Pirates is Andrew Heaney, who is 3-3 in ten starts this season, with a 2.91 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 55.2 innings.

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks (26-27, 13-13 Home) are experiencing their worst stretch of the year, during which they suffered five consecutive losses. After a series loss to the Dodgers on the road, the Diamondbacks were swept by the Cardinals in Saint Louis. In the most recent 4-3 defeat, Eugenio Suarez led the offense with two RBI, while Brandon Pfaadt pitched for 5.2 innings in a no-decision, allowing three runs on five hits with five strikeouts and one walk. Kevin Ginkel took the loss.

This season, the Diamondbacks average 5.04 runs per game (5th in the MLB) on a .255/.333/.447 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Diamondbacks’ staff has a 4.67 ERA (24th) and 1.32 WHIP (19th). Eugenio Suarez leads the Diamondbacks with a .230 batting average, 14 home runs, and 40 RBI this season.

Ryne Nelson will take the mound for the Diamondbacks on Monday. The 27-year-old right-hander has a 1-1 record in two starts this year with a 4.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 31.1 innings.

Why the Pirates will cover

• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have won each of their last three games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in five of their last six games against the Diamondbacks following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Pirates’ last seven road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Diamondbacks’ last 10 home games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Pirates’ last nine road games against NL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Diamondbacks’ last seven games as favorites against NL Central opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (399).
• The Diamondbacks are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for RBIs this season (159).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.331).

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction

The Diamondbacks won seven of the previous ten H2H encounters, including four of the last six. However, three of those four wins came by a one-run margin, and I expect another tight duel on Monday. Although the D-backs are the favorites, I am backing the Pirates to stay close and cover because of Andrew Heaney, who is having a season of his career. Heaney allowed four runs in his last three starts, while the D-backs will start Nelson, who is not a regular starter. That said, I am giving Heaney and the Pirates an advantage, at least in the opening five or six innings. Back the visitors to cover.