Guardians vs Tigers Prediction 7/4/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Guardians vs Tigers prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 4th at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 40-45 this year after they lost all three games against the Cubs by scores of 2-5, 4-5, and 0-1. In their game three loss, Cleveland was able to generate quite a few baserunners, but couldn’t score in any of the 10 innings for the loss. The Guardians recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Kwan, who went 2-4 in the loss. Cleveland started Cantillo, who allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 3.1 innings, while Clase picked up the loss. 

Prior to that series, the Guardians lost all three against the Cardinals and two out of three against the Blue Jays. Cleveland has lost seven games in a row and they are currently third in the AL Central standings. The Cleveland pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and a .252 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 309 runs with a .225 batting average and a .297 on base percentage this season. Jose Ramirez has led Cleveland with 13 home runs and 38 RBIs, while Kyle Manzardo has added 13 home runs and 33 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Slade Cecconi, who is 3-3 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 42.0 innings pitched this year. 

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers are 54-34 this season after they lost two out of three against Washington by scores of 11-2, 4-9, and 7-11. In their game three loss, Detroit led 3-0 in the first inning, but they allowed the next nine runs in the game and couldn’t complete the comeback for the loss. The Tigers recorded eight hits and they committed three errors in the game, while they were led by Torkelson, who went 1-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the loss. Detroit started Enns, who allowed eight hits and seven earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Hernandez allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Tigers won two out of three against the Twins and two out of three against the Athletics. Detroit has won three of their last five games and they are currently first in the AL Central standings. The Detroit pitching staff has a 3.56 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 446 runs with a .256 batting average and a .325 on base percentage this season. Riley Greene has led Detroit with 21 home runs and 69 RBIs, while Spencer Torkelson has added 19 home runs and 55 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Reese Olson, who is 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 48.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Guardians will beat the Tigers

• The Guardians have won each of their last nine Friday night games against the Tigers.
• The Tigers have lost three of their last four games as favorites against the Guardians following a loss.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.
• The Tigers have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Tigers have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five road night games.

Why the Tigers will beat the Guardians

• The Guardians have lost each of their last seven games.
• The Tigers have won each of their last seven games against AL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games at Progressive Field following a road loss.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games against the Tigers following a road loss.
• The Tigers have won the first inning in four of their last five games at Progressive Field against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four home games.
• The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 games as home underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Tigers’ last six road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Guardians’ last four games after going to extra innings have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Tigers’ last four games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last four night games.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Carlos Santana has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Guardians as underdogs against the Tigers.
• Lane Thomas has hit a home run in each of the Guardians’ last two night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Matt Vierling has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against AL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Riley Greene has hit at least one home run in three of the Tigers’ last four games as favorites.
• Javier Baez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against AL opponents.

Guardians vs Tigers Prediction

Detroit is coming off of a rough series in Washington, where their pitching staff was not good, while Cleveland has dropped seven games in a row. The Guardians are 20-20 at home this year, while the Tigers are 24-20 on the road. Detroit has battled injuries in their rotation, but they will get back Olson for this game, who has allowed zero earned runs in three of his last five starts. Cleveland is starting Cecconi, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. Take the under in this contest.