Mets vs Reds Prediction 7/18/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 18th at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 55-42 this year after they won two out of three against the Royals by scores of 8-3, 3-1, and 2-3. In their game three loss, New York tied the game at two in the top of the ninth, but they allowed a run in the bottom of the inning for the loss. The Mets recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Young and McNeil who both had one RBI in the loss. New York started Holmes, who allowed five hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Manaea picked up the loss. 

Prior to that series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Orioles, but did win two out of three against the Yankees before that. New York has lost three of their last five games and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.56 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 426 runs with a .244 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 21 home runs and 77 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 23 home runs and 56 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Sean Manaea, who is 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 3.1 innings pitched this year. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 50-47 this season after they won two out of three against Colorado by scores of 2-3, 4-3, and 4-2. In their game three win, Cincinnati trailed 2-1 in the third inning, but they scored the final three runs in the game for the victory. The Reds recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Friedl, Hays, and Steer, who all had one RBI in the win. Cincinnati started Martinez, who allowed five hits and two earned runs over 5.1 innings for the win, while Pagan picked up the save. 

Prior to that series, the Reds split four games with the Marlins and lost two out of three against the Phillies. Cincinnati has won four of their last five games and they are currently fourth in the NL Central standings. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 441 runs with a .246 batting average and a .317 on base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with 18 home runs and 63 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has added 11 home runs and 39 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Lodolo, who is 6-6 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 106.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Reds will beat the Mets

• The Mets have lost five of their last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have won three of their last four games as road underdogs against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in five of the Mets’ last six games at Citi Field.
• The Reds have won the first inning in five of their last six games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in five of their last six night games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Mets’ last six games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last eight night games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Reds’ last six games.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Nimmo has hit at least one home run in three of the Mets’ last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last eight night games.
• Juan Soto ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.396) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 12 Friday games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Will Benson has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Austin Hays has recorded a Double in three of the Reds’ last four games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night games.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T6th in the league in Steals (25) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (83).
• The Mets rank 4th in the league for ERA this season (3.56).
• The Reds rank T23rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (842).
• The Reds rank T8th in the league for hits allowed this season (761).

Mets vs Reds Prediction 

New York comes into this series right behind Philadelphia in the race for the NL East, so every game is super important for them. The Mets are 33-14 at home this year, while the Reds are 22-25 on the road. Cincinnati has capitalized on a weak schedule in recent series and they are starting Lodolo, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Mets are going with Manaea, who is making his second start of the season. I don’t know if I fully trust Manaea yet, so I like the Reds with the plus money.