Florida State vs Alabama Prediction Football Picks Today 8/30/25

The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Florida State Seminoles meet Saturday in college football action from Doak Campbell Stadium. Here’s a Florida State vs Alabama prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Florida State vs Alabama pick.

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview

The Crimson Tide sported a new look last season, their first since 2007 without legendary head coach Nick Saban (six national titles) on the sidelines. Alabama naturally looked a bit rudderless for most of the year but did manage to carve out a 9-4 record overall with a 5-3 mark in a very difficult Southeastern Conference. The Tide finished in fifth place among the standings with that effort, behind Texas, Georgia, Tennessee and Ole Miss. The top seven teams in the SEC standings were ranked nationally, so it wasn’t easy to make a lot of headway among such difficult competition. In any case, the Crimson Tide earned their way to a bowl berth in the ReliaQuest Bowl on December 31 versus Michigan. Unfortunately Alabama fell short in that matchup, taking a 19-13 heartbreaker loss to finish the season on a down note.

2025 is head coach Kalen DeBoer’s second year at the helm, and he’ll have a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb. The rest of the main coaching staff is back on the sidelines however, so Alabama will have a bit of consistency there this season. The Tide do have a bit of turnover on the field however, including big-name players like TE CJ Dippre, CB Malachi Moore, DL Tim Smith, LB Quandarris Robinson, QB Jalen Milroe, all departing with NFL dreams. Incoming transfers like CB Cameron Calhoun, WR Isaiah Horton and LB Nikhai Hill-Green should make things interesting, however.

Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview

Over on the Seminoles’ side, they had quite the forgettable season in 2024. Florida State entered the year as defending ACC champions but ended up with their worst record since 1974. They were the first team in the CFP era to go from double-digit wins to double-digit losses, posting a 2-10 overall record with a disastrous 1-7 mark in conference play. Along the way, FSU lost to Duke for the first time in school history and set a new low for their worst conference record as well. Needless to say, Florida State finished in the basement of the conference standings, one game behind Stanford.

Let’s put that 2025 season behind us, shall we? Head coach Mike Norvell is back for his sixth year with the program, and he’s got a pair of coordinators behind him. They’ll have to deal with the usual dose of outgoing players, including NFL draftees CB Azareye’h Thomas (New York Jets) and DT Joshua Farmer (New England Patriots). WR Hykeem Williams (Colorado), QB Luke Kromenhoek (Mississippi State) and WR Malik Benson (Oregon) head a group of outgoing transfers as well. Mixed among the incoming crop of names are QB Thomas Castellanos (Boston College), LB Elijah Herring (Memphis), DE James Williams (Nebraska) and RB Gavin Sawchuk (Oklahoma).

Why the Florida State Seminoles will win

• The team ranked 8th in the AP Poll has lost each of its last three games.
• Florida State has won 25 of its last 30 games against non-conference opponents at Doak Campbell Stadium.
• The team ranked 8th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.
• Florida State has covered the spread in three of its last four games against top-15 AP-ranked teams at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide will win

• The favorite has won each of Florida State’s last nine games.
• Florida State has lost each of its last eight games as an underdog.
• Alabama has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 season openers.
• Florida State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
• Alabama has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
• Alabama has won the first half in seven of its last eight games against opponents from the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Florida State’s last eight games in Florida have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Six of Alabama’s last seven games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.

Florida State vs Alabama Prediction

I’m staying with Alabama. The Tide are used to high expectations, and they’ve got them once again heading into the 2025 campaign. Alabama was right in the mix among the SEC media poll results, earning third place behind Texas and Georgia. The top five—or really the top seven even—are pretty closely-ranked in talent, so it’s bound to be another wild year in the conference. Alabama certainly has the pedigree to deal with the pressure: they’ve got more CFP appearances (eight) than any other team and have won three titles in that era. With Jalen Milroe and Justin Haynes gone, making the playoffs is anything but a guarantee. That said, there’s plenty of talent to help fill in the gaps and Alabama certainly has a solid shot at doing some damage in the top tier of college football.