Mercury vs Liberty Prediction 9-14-25 WNBA Picks

The New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury meet Sunday in WNBA First Round Game 1 at the PHX Arena. Here’s a Mercury vs Liberty Prediction. This article will include a Mercury vs Liberty Pick.

New York Liberty Betting Preview

The New York Liberty recently beat the Sky and Mystics. The Liberty have split their last 14 games.

The New York Liberty are averaging 84.4 points on 45.3 percent shooting and allowing 80.3 points on 42.4 percent shooting. Sabrina Ionescu is averaging 18.2 points and 5.7 assists, while Breanna Stewart is averaging 18.3 points and 6.5 rebounds. Jonquel Jones is the third double-digit scorer, and Natasha Cloud is dishing 5.1 assists. The New York Liberty are shooting 35.5 percent from beyond the arc and 83.7 percent from the free throw line. The New York Liberty are allowing 31.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 33.7 rebounds per game.

Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview

The Phoenix Mercury recently lost to the Wings and Sparks. The Mercury have won 11 of their last 17 games.

The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 84.7 points on 43.3 percent shooting and allowing 82 points on 42.7 percent shooting. Satou Sabally is averaging 16.3 points and 5.9 rebounds, while Alyssa Thomas is averaging 15.4 points and 8.8 rebounds. Kahleah Copper is the third double-digit scorer and DeWanna Bonner is grabbing 4.3 rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury are shooting 34 percent from beyond the arc and 78.4 percent from the free throw line. The Phoenix Mercury are allowing 32.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 35.5 rebounds per game.

New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: September 14, 2025

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The home team has won each of the Mercury’s last seven playoff games.
• The Liberty have lost eight of their last nine road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Liberty have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 14 road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Mercury’s last five games.

Why the New York Liberty will win

• The Mercury have lost each of their last 11 day games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Liberty have won each of their last four First Round games.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 11 day games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The favorites have covered the spread in four of the last five games between the Mercury and Liberty.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Mercury’s last six home games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Liberty’s last six games as favorites following a road win have gone UNDER the total points line.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

New York Liberty Player Facts

• Sabrina Ionescu ranks 1st amongst qualified players in the Eastern Conference for assists per game (5.7) this season.
• Leonie Fiebich ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for 3P% (42.5%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phoenix Mercury have recorded 10+ three-pointers in each of their last four games – team’s longest streak since 2018.
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for bench points per game (25.5) this season.
• The New York Liberty rank 1st for opponent three-point percentage this season (31.5%).
• The New York Liberty rank 1st for free throw percentage this season (83.7%).

Mercury vs Liberty Injury Report

The Mercury don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

The Liberty don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

Mercury vs Liberty Prediction

This is the best series of round one as either team can not only win it but also make a deep playoff run overall. The Liberty will get the edge from most people because of last year, but they’ve struggled to find a rhythm, and they’re 10-12 SU on the road.

The Mercury have had issues playing up to their potential, but this is a title roster when clicking. A foursome of Sabally, Copper, Thomas, and Bonner is as good as any in the league. The Mercury have won 3 of the last 4 games against the Liberty. I have the Mercury winning this series and will be on them anytime I can get them as an underdog in the playoffs overall. Give me the home team.