James Madison Dukes (1-1) vs. Liberty Flames (1-2)
September 20, 2025 3:30 pm EDT
The Line: Liberty Flames 10 / James Madison Dukes -10; Over/Under: 46.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The James Madison Dukes and Liberty Flames meet Saturday in college football action at Williams Stadium. Here’s a Liberty vs James Madison Prediction. This article will include a Liberty vs James Madison Pick.
James Madison Dukes Betting Preview
The James Madison Dukes beat Weber State, lost to Louisville, and they play Georgia Southern next. The James Madison Dukes have won 5 of their last 8 games. Alonza Barnett III is completing 61.7 percent of his passes for 232 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Landon Ellis and Wayne Knight have combined for 118 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Logan Kyle has 3 receptions.
The James Madison Dukes ground game is averaging 219.5 yards per contest, and George Pettaway leads the way with 120 yards on 15 carries. Defensively, James Madison is allowing 19 points and 206 yards per game. Trent Hendrick leads the James Madison Dukes with 13 tackles, Immanuel Bush has 1 sack and Tyler Brown has 1 interception.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview
The Liberty Flames lost to Jacksonville State and Bowling Green, and they play Old Dominion next. The Liberty Flames have lost 4 of their last 5 games. Ethan Vasko is completing 59.3 percent of his passes for 726 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Donte Lee Jr. and Reese Smith have combined for 305 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Jamari Person has 9 receptions.
The Liberty Flames ground game is averaging 181.7 yards per contest, and Ethan Vasko leads the way with 230 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Liberty is allowing 21.3 points and 336.7 yards per game. Derrell Farrar leads the Liberty Flames with 15 tackles, CJ Bazile Jr. has 1.5 sacks and Amarian Williams has 1 interception.
James Madison Dukes @ Liberty Flames Betting Trends: Week 4
Why the Liberty Flames will win
- Liberty has won each of its last 12 home games in September.
- James Madison has lost three of its last four games as a road favorite.
- Liberty has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- James Madison has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games as a road favorite.
- Liberty has won the first half in eight of its last nine games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference.
Why the James Madison Dukes will win
- James Madison has won 11 of its last 12 games in September.
- Liberty has lost four of its last five games.
- Liberty has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against non-conference opponents.
- James Madison has covered the spread in each of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
- James Madison has won the first quarter in each of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
- James Madison has won the first half in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Liberty’s last seven games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Nine of James Madison’s last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Liberty Flames Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Donte Lee Jr. leads the Conference USA for receiving touchdowns (3) this season.
James Madison Dukes Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, George Pettaway ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Liberty ranks T5th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (13.7).
- Liberty ranks T132nd among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (226.7).
- James Madison ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
- James Madison has won the first quarter in each of its last five games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
Liberty vs James Madison Prediction
How the mighty have fallen, as it looked like Liberty was the cream of the crop in the CUSA and a potential playoff team, but they’re coming off back-to-back bad losses. Liberty is horrible in run defense and hasn’t been able to finish drives offensively despite having success moving the ball. Liberty has also failed to cover 8 of its last 10 games.
James Madison had its chances to beat Louisville and has had extra time to prepare for this game. I can understand the line. With that said, the talent is still there for Liberty and if things are going to turn around, it would be here at home. It’s now or never. This line feels like a slight overreaction. Liberty has outright won 3 of its last 5 games as a double-digit underdog. Give me the points.
