Cubs vs Reds Prediction 9/18/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Reds Prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 18^th at the Great American Ball Park in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 76-76 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL Central. The Reds have a 40-34 home record and are 57-87 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-2 road victory over the Cardinals, and are 2-4 in their last 6 games. Under is 7-3 in their last 10 games and they are playing the Pirates and the Brewers next.

The Reds have a .246 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .391 slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 3.97 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.  Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with 156 hits, and in RBI, with 82, adding a team-high 19 home runs. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .267 batting average.

Hunter Greene (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 6-4 record, 3.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have an 88-64 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL Central. The Cubs have a 42-35 road record and are 68-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-1 road victory over the Pirates, and are 5-1 in their last 6 games. Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games and are playing the Mets and the Cardinals next.

The Cubs have a .250 batting average this season, .322 OBP and .428 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 168 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .303 batting average. Seiya Suzuki leads the team in RBI, with 91, while Pete Crow-Armstrong adds a team-high 29 home runs.

Colin Rea (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 10-6 record, 4.23 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

The Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: September 18, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Hunter Greene      Record this season: 6-4      ERA: 3.01
• Home Record: 4-1
• Last 5 against Cubs: 2-0

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won four of their last five games against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have lost four of their last five road games against the Reds following a win.
• The Reds have covered the run line each of their last five night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Thursday night games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have lost the first inning in four of their last five games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games at Great American Ball Park.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Colin Rea      Record this season: 10-6      ERA: 4.23
• Road Record: 5-3
• Last 5 against Reds: 1-2

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have lost four of their last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games at Great American Ball Park following a win.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last eight night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the last four games between the Cubs and Reds at Great American Ball Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last five games between the Cubs and Reds.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Cubs’ last five games at Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Spencer Steer has hit a home run in two of the Reds’ last three night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Hunter Greene has recorded eight or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Reds as favorites against NL opponents.
• Hunter Greene has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Reds as favorites against NL opponents.
• Austin Hays has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in night games.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded a Double in three of the Reds’ last four games as home favorites against NL opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 12 games.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one Double in each of the Cubs’ last four road games against the Reds.
• Dansby Swanson has hit a home run in two of the Cubs’ last three games against the Reds.
• Nico Hoerner ranks T5th in the league in Hits (166) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 23rd in the league for home runs this season (152).
• The Reds rank 8th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.237).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (383).
• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (153).

Cubs vs Reds Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 wins in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, but the Cubs are 2-1 in their last 3 visits in Cincinnati. Under is 5-1 in their last 6 meetings.

In this Cubs vs Reds Prediction, the Reds are coming as -125 home favorites. The Reds are fighting for a Wild Card spot, while the Cubs just clinched a spot in the playoffs. Greene has been a better option than Rea on the mound, and he has been elite at home, with a 1.69 ERA, while Rea has been weaker on the road, with a 4.47 ERA. Rea has also been torched in both of his starts against the Reds this season, having given up 6 runs in each one, and the Reds are better against right-handed pitching. Take the Cincinnati Reds on the moneyline at home in this one.