Hawaii vs Fresno State Prediction Football Picks Today 9/20/25

In this article we will formulate a Hawaii vs Fresno State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 20th at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawaii. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 4 matchup. 

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Betting Preview

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are 3-1 (0-0) this season after they defeated Portland State by a score of 23-3 last week. Hawaii led 14-0 at halftime, but only scored nine points in the second half in the win. The Rainbow Warriors out gained Portland State by a total of 357-230, went 9-19 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Luke Weaver went 26-42 for 240 yards and two touchdowns, while Landon Sims carried the ball nine times for 41 yards. Cam Barfield led the Hawaii receivers with four catches for 50 yards and two scores in the win. The Hawaii defense recorded three sacks and six tackles for loss in the game. 

Hawaii started their season with a win over Stanford by a score of 23-20, a loss to Arizona by a score of 40-6, and a win over Sam Houston by a score of 37-20. The Rainbow Warriors are averaging 22.3 points per game with 244.3 passing yards and 98.3 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 20.8 points against per game this season. Micah Alejado has been injured, but he is expected to be back under center for this one. If Alejado remains out, Luke Weaver will be the quarterback. Landon Sims has rushed for 154 yards on 39 carries, while Pofele Ashlock has caught 26 passes for 235 yards and three scores this season. 

Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Fresno State Bulldogs are 3-1 (0-0) this year after they defeated Southern by a score of 56-7 in their last game. Fresno State led 14-0 after the first quarter and 35-7 at halftime, before pulling away in the second half for the easy win. The Bulldogs out gained Southern by a total of 507-142, went 8-10 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. EJ Warner went 20-24 for 240 yards and four touchdowns, while Bryson Donelson rushed nine times for 90 yards and one score. Rayshon Luke caught seven passes for 79 yards and one touchdown in the win. The Fresno State defense recorded three sacks and six tackles for loss in the game. 

Fresno State has lost to Kansas by a score of 31-7, defeated Georgia Southern by a score of 42-14, and defeated Oregon State by a score of 36-27 so far this year. The Bulldogs are averaging 35.3 points per game with 189.5 passing yards and 202.5 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 19.8 points against per game this season. EJ Warner has completed 72.4% of his passes for 716 yards, four touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Josiah Freeman has caught 11 passes for 149 yards. Bryson Donelson has led the rushing attack with 325 yards and two scores on 50 carries this year. 

Why Hawaii will beat Fresno State

• The home team has won each of Hawaii’s last six games.
• Fresno State has lost three of its last four road games.
• Fresno State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight road games against conference opponents.
• Hawaii has covered the spread in seven of its last eight home games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why Fresno State will beat Hawaii

• Hawaii has lost each of its last nine September games as an underdog.
• Fresno State has won each of its last eight September games as a favorite.
• Hawaii has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five September games as an underdog.
• The favorite has covered the spread in four of Fresno State’s last five games.
• Fresno State has won the first half in each of its last four games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Fresno State’s last four games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.
• Eight of Hawaii’s last 10 home games against teams from California have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Hawaii has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
• Hawaii has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
• Fresno State has the worst single-game yard differential in a win this season (318-528 vs Oregon State in Week 2).
• Fresno State ranks T3rd among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (88).

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Hawaii vs Fresno State Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup with a 3-1 record and will look to start conference play with a win here. Hawaii was not impressive in their last game against Portland State, but they are 3-0 at home this year. Fresno State has won three games in a row and they have scored 56, 36, and 42 points in those games. I do like Hawaii to get the win if Alejado plays, but since we don’t know his status, I will take the over, as I don’t love either defense.